对我国加入TPP的经济影响评估：基于非关税措施等价关税的CGE模型分析

美国主导的跨太平洋伙伴协定（TPP）将对全球投资贸易规则体系产生深远影响。是否加入TPP谈判是当前我国面临的重大决策问题。在全球关税水平已经持续下降到很低水平的背景下，货物贸易和服务贸易领域全方位的非关税措施（壁垒）的解除成为TPP的关键特征。本项目基于全球最新的贸易和非关税措施的大数据库和创新的计量经济学方法，计算全球主要国家HS 6位编码的货物贸易非关税措施的等价关税和服务贸易多个产业部门的非关税措施的等价关税。我们在CGE模型中以关税的减免与非关税措施等价关税的减免来量化评估加入TPP后各种市场开放对我国各产业部门的贸易流量和产出量的影响。本项目的研究成果将不仅为应用研究者们提供更好的量化非关税措施的计量经济学方法，也能够为中国参加TPP谈判提供坚实的量化分析支撑，为中国在谈判中据理力争，最大化本国利益提供符合国际标准的观点和依据。

Trans-Pacific Partnership led by the US will have deep impact on the global investment and trade system. China is now facing the big decision to join or stay out of it. As tariff levels have dropped tremendously in recent years, the comprehensive removal of all non-tariff measures in goods and services trade becomes the key feature of TPP. This project calculates HS 6 level tariff equivalents for non-tariff measures in goods trade and sector level tariff equivalents for non-tariff measures in services trade, using the most recent global trade and non-tariff measures database and innovative econometric methods. By characterizing TPP markets liberalization as reductions in the tariffs and in tariff equivalents of non-tariff measures, we evaluate the economic impact of TPP on China's industry level trade flows and products. This project not only provides better econometric methods for quantifying non-tariff measures, but also supplies China with solid quantitative analysis, based on which China is in a better position to negotiate for its own interest and maximize its benefits with legitimate justifications.