根据重建的中国各地温度、干湿变化序列，历史文献记载的重大气候事件和自然灾害及其影响记录，以及历史（特别是宋、辽、西夏、金、元朝）人口、土地整编数据与农耕、食货和相关的社会发展史实等资料；综合采用统计诊断分析、序列对比、序列—事件对比、案例对比等分析方法；重点研究：中世纪气候异常的多尺度特征与区域差异，气候多尺度变化对农业系统影响的区域差异，人类个体、群体及社会系统对气候变化响应行为及作用，人口增长、人均耕地、口粮变化及其反转点与后续效应。旨在：揭示中世纪气候异常期间气候变化对中国农业社会影响的多尺度特征及其区域差异，辨识其间气候多尺度变化对农业生产的负面影响区域；阐明中世纪气候异常对中国农业社会影响的多尺度、多过程相互作用与风险积聚特征，辨识与暖期相伴的社会发展导致的资源与环境压力及其后续负面效应；为我国农业系统因时、因地适应未来温暖背景下的复杂气候变化提供历史案例和科学认识。

This project will study the impacts of Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) on Agrarian Society in China, focusing on the complexity and spatiotemporal pattern. The data used for the study will include the reconstruction on temperatures, precipitation changes and the other proxies especially from historical documents, tree-rings, together with the documentary records on extreme climate event, natural disaster, land use, population, croping system, agricultural products and foods, as well as other related information on the change of agrarian society recorded in the history for Song, Liao, Western Xia, Jin and Yuan Dynasties. The ensemble empirical mode decomposition, wavelet analysis, multi-taper method, Mann-Kendall test will be used for investigating the spatiotemporal pattern of climatic change during MCA. The comparison (including series to series, case to case and series to case) between climate variation and the change of agrarian society with planting system, agricultural products and foods will be used to assess the impacts of climate anomaly on agrarian society, the response of human to the impacts derived from climate change for individuals, communities and society. Moreover, the changes of population, farmland and grain ration, as well as the risk derived from the interactions between the multi-scale and multi-process impacts, will be inspected. It will provide insights into the complex synergies that exist between human activities and climate change, which may also be valuable for the successful adaptation of agriculture and society to climate change under on-going global warming in the future.