系统性金融风险事关全局，并具有巨大的负外部性，针对已有研究侧重于个体承担的系统性风险测度、成因大多聚焦于金融传染机制以及事后监管的局限性，本项目拟从系统性风险的整体性、内生性和过程观出发，基于跨截面空间维度和时间演化维度的双重视角，聚焦于金融体系的整体系统性风险及其生成演化过程，重点关注并揭示内生性风险机制，并着力构建面向事前管理的风险监测预警体系。具体而言，本项目将从六大维度科学识别风险因子；构建系统性风险指数和系统性风险状态图，它具有整体性、实时性和动态性三大特征；通过经济结构化方程并借助于计算实验金融学建模手段分析经济基本面、金融机构决策、金融资产价格之间的互动反馈影响，揭示内生性风险机制；开发包括短期预警和中期预警在内的早期风险预警体系。本项目将为市场各方理解系统性风险的本质特征及金融审慎监管提供更为深入的理论基础，并为风险的事前管控提供科学的分析工具。

Systemic financial risk is a matter of overall importance and has great negative externalities. The existing research focuses on individual systemic risk measures, financial contagion mechanism and ex post supervision. In order to make up for the above limitations, we aim to disclose the overall systemic risk of the financial system and its evolution process from a comprehensive perspective which includes cross-sectional space dimension and time evolution dimension. We highlight the integrity, endogeneity and process view of systemic risk when doing these studies. Furthermore, we will focus on and reveal the endogenous risk mechanism, and develop risk monitoring and early warning system for pre-management. To be more specific, the project will identify risk factors from six dimensions, and construct the systemic risk index and systemic risk map which would be holistic, real-time and dynamic. Through the economic structural equation and by means of agent-based computational financial modeling, this project could give deep investigation on interactive feedback among economic fundamentals, financial institution decision making and financial asset prices, and reveal the endogenous risk mechanism. More importantly, we will develop early risk-warning systems, including short-term early warning and medium-term early warning. The project will provide a more in-depth theoretical basis for understanding the essential characteristics of systemic risk and financial prudential regulation, and put forward scientific analysis tools for risk pre-management.