基于系统论理论的钩虫病干预机制模型构建及其现场验证

批准号:
81973108
项目类别:
面上项目
资助金额:
55.0 万元
负责人:
周晓农
依托单位:
学科分类:
传染病流行病学
结题年份:
2023
批准年份:
2019
项目状态:
已结题
项目参与者:
周晓农
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中文摘要
钩虫病全球分布广、危害重,我国至今尚未实现其传播阻断,西部贫困地区还存在高感染地区。国内外在钩虫病干预措施效果方面研究较多,但尚少开展钩虫病各类影响因素的系统作用和各系统中干预效果的整体性研究。因此,定量研究经济有效、因地制宜的农村钩虫病控制与消除策略迫在眉睫。本研究围绕“钩虫病传播中影响因素相互作用及其作用结果是什么、如何正确预测各干预措施及其不同组合对钩虫病传播的阻断效果”这一科学问题,应用交叉学科的系统论理论和系统动力学模型的支持,在现场开展干预试点基础上,构建钩虫病传播机制模型,定量分析各类干预措施的效果,提出我国不同区域钩虫病从控制走向消除的优化策略。重点解决“钩虫病传播机制模型系统边界的确定、机制模型结构与维度的分析框架建立、机制模型的模拟运行与现场验证”等3方面关键技术,阐明钩虫病各干预系统的作用与相互作用的效果、各系统中的干预措施组合优先效果,最终形成最佳干预策略。
英文摘要
Hookworm disease has been distributed globally and caused great harm to the people’s health. The transmission of the disease hasn’t been interrupted and high prevalent areas still exist in poor western China. Few of systems investigations on interaction of impact factors and effectiveness of the systems interventions have been undertaken, although a lot of studies on effectiveness of single intervention have done both in China and abroad. It is urgent to investigate the effectiveness of systems interventions on hookworm transmission quantitatively and systematically and put forward the better strategy for blocking the hookworm transmission. The proposed project is arming to solve the scientific question on "what is the interaction effectiveness of various impact factors in the transmission of hookworm disease, and how to predict the interrupting outcomes by implementing the systems interventions and various combination of intervention", the proposed investigation will be performed by establishing the transmission mechanism model supported by the field intervention trial as well as the system dynamics model backed by systems thinking theory integrated with other subjects; the established model will used to simulate and predict the effectiveness of various systems interventions and their combinations, finally the optimal strategies for controlling and eliminating hookworm disease in different regions of China will be proposed. The research will technically focus on the determination of borderline in the transmission mechanism model of the disease, establishment of analytic framework for the structure and dimensions of the mechanism model, simulation and validation of the established model, in order to clarify the interacting outcomes of the systems and optimal combination for the various interventions in the systems, with the final product that is the best systems intervention strategy to interrupt the disease transmission.
期刊论文列表
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科研奖励列表
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专利列表
DOI:10.12140/j.issn.1000-7423.2021.05.015
发表时间:2021-01-01
期刊:Chinese Journal of Parasitology and Parasitic Diseases
影响因子:--
作者:Zhu, Hui-Hui;Huang, Ji-Lei;Zhou, X. N.
通讯作者:Zhou, X. N.
DOI:10.1186/s40249-020-00783-3
发表时间:2020
期刊:Infectious Diseases of Poverty
影响因子:8.1
作者:Ru-Bo Wang;Yi-Ting Hong;Xiao-Nong Zhou
通讯作者:Xiao-Nong Zhou
DOI:10.1186/s40249-020-00757-5
发表时间:2020-10-07
期刊:Infectious diseases of poverty
影响因子:8.1
作者:Zinsstag J;Utzinger J;Probst-Hensch N;Shan L;Zhou XN
通讯作者:Zhou XN
DOI:10.1016/j.actatropica.2020.105351
发表时间:2020-05-01
期刊:ACTA TROPICA
影响因子:2.7
作者:Zhu, Hui-Hui;Huang, Ji-Lei;Zhou, Xiao-Nong
通讯作者:Zhou, Xiao-Nong
国内基金
海外基金
