在科学研究中，计算仿真已经成为继理论分析和实验技术之后的第三支柱。随着复杂工程结构设计对仿真模型精度的要求不断提高，就必须考虑实际存在的各种不确定性，这时仿真模型的可信度确认就成为一项重要的研究课题。模型确认就是从模型用途角度评定仿真模型可信度的过程。本申请项目基于“2014年模型确认挑战问题”，深入发展和改进模型形式不确定性量化、确认度量方法以及基于小样本数据的模型确认问题；将校准、确认、认证和目标预测的分层思想用于飞行器加筋壁板结构随机振动模型可信度评估中，考虑参数和模型形式不确定性对宽带随机振动环境下加筋壁板结构的动应力响应进行外推预测，并给出预测的可信度。本申请项目将为飞行器结构复杂环境动应力响应的外推预测提供更加可信的模型，同时为基于仿真模型的复杂结构设计提供一种新思路。

The computation and simulation has become the third pillar along with theory and experiment in scientific research. The true accuracy and credibility of simulation model has become an important topic with the high simulation requirements and a large variety of uncertainties considering in engineering design. Model validation is the process of assessing the credibility of a simulation model from the perspective of the intended uses of the model. The methods of model-form uncertainty quantification, validation metric and validation problem with small samples are further development with the research of ‘2014 V&V Challenge Problem’. Therefore, the concept of validation hierarchy tiers including calibration, validation, accreditation and prediction is used to dynamical simulation model credibility assessment of aircraft stiffened panel structure under random excitation. The credibility of dynamical stress response extrapolative prediction is performed taking into parameter and model-form uncertainties account for the stiffened panel structure under wide band random excitation environment. The project will provide an accurate and credibility model for extrapolative prediction of aircraft structure dynamic stress response under complex vibration environment, also will provide a new idea for simulation-based design of complex mechanical structures.