心血管代谢危险因素暴露长期轨迹趋势模式与2型糖尿病发病率关系的全国大样本队列研究

心血管代谢危险因素及其聚集的持续流行与全球2型糖尿病（Type 2 diabetes mellitus，T2DM）疾病负担的快速上升密切相关。但这些危险因素暴露的长期轨迹趋势模式与T2DM发病关联的高级别研究证据有限，影响T2DM病因学机制的深入探索及干预政策的制定。基于RCCS、China MUCA 1992-1994、China MUCA 1998 和InterASIA四项队列研究，构建本项目全国大样本（基线样本量合计为69767人）队列研究数据库。获得研究对象基线及不同时期随访时收集的心血管代谢危险因素及其聚集暴露水平数据，应用基于组的轨迹模型方法，分析心血管代谢危险因素暴露及其聚集交互作用的长期轨迹趋势模式与T2DM的发病风险的关系，并采用自回归滑动平均模型拟合时间序列，预测我国T2DM的发病率趋势，为T2DM的病因学研究及干预策略的制定提供高级别研究证据。

The persistent prevalence of cardiometabolic risk factors are closely associated with the rapid rising of disease burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) worldwide. However, high level study evidences on the association of long-term trajectory trend patterns of these risk factors and the incident risk of T2DM remain limited, which further affect the exploration of etiological mechanism and the development of intervention policy. Based on the four cohort studies of RCCS，China MUCA 1992-1994, China MUCA 1998, and InterASIA, the nationwide large cohort study population database (Total sample size was 69767 at baseline examination) was established for this project. Exposure data on cardiometabolic risk factors and their clustering at baseline and different follow-up examinations were collected. Group-based trajectory modeling method was employed for analyzing the associations between long-term trajectory trend models of cardiovascular risk factors and their clustering interactions and T2DM. The incidence trend of T2DM will be predicted based on auto-regressive moving average by fitting the time series data, thus the study results will provide high level evidences for etiology study and the development of intervention strategies.