渤海湾西岸年代际尺度海岸演化机制与动力-统计方法建模

综合运用地貌学、海岸动力学、泥沙收支原理以及数值模拟技术等理论方法，以黄河入海水沙通量长期变化为背景，理清渤海湾西岸近60年来不同演变阶段的海岸系统泥沙收支关系及其区域波气候变化特征。以泥沙收支、环流输送、波浪掀沙以及波气候变化等要素作为年代际尺度海岸演化的主要驱动因子，研究建立基于"驱动力概化"与"统计升尺度"有机衔接的年代际尺度海岸演化模型"动力-统计"建模方法。以沙量收支平衡原理构建基于海岸系统泥沙收支与近岸波浪掀沙相结合的渤海湾西岸年代际尺度海岸演化机理模型。通过海岸演变过程的控制模拟实验，研究比较各演变阶段，不同时空尺度、水沙通量以及波气候变化情景下的各种海岸演化对泥沙收支及动力作用的响应关系，诊断分析泥沙收支、环流输送、波浪掀沙以及波气候变化等因素对渤海湾西岸年代际尺度现代海岸演化的驱动机制和影响。在中长时间尺度海岸演化研究领域，推动海岸演化动力学理论体系和预测方法的创新发展。

Coastal evolution both due to natural and human-induced causes or factors can be variable over a wide range of different temporal and spatial scales. There are significant differences among evolution processes, influencing factors and dynamic mechanisms, as well as the different fundamental theories and technologies corresponding to the related scales. It is becoming a focus and the most challenging topic in the international field of coastal evolution research to scientifically understand coastal evolution processes and dynamic mechanisms at the macro and mega-time scale. On the basis of profoundly understanding of long term changes of discharge and suspended load from the Yellow River to the Bohai Sea, and the deeply comprehending sediment budget in each coastal littoral cell of the western Bohai Bay and regional wave climate characteristics at different evolution phases in the recently 60 years, theories and methods of geomorphology, coastal morphodynamics and numerical modeling are comprehensively used in this project to study the decadal time scale coastal evolution processes of the western Bohai Bay dominated by morphodynamic factors such as sediment budget, suspended sediment transport under the tide-induced and wind-driven residual circulations, wave climate change, sediment winnowing caused by wave etc. The objective of this project is to explore the dynamical-statistical modeling for the decadal time scale coastal evolution with integration of statistically up-scaling and morphodynamic reduction and develop a decadal time-scale coastal evolution process model for the western Bohai Bay with integration of sediment budget and sediment winnowing caused by wave. Diagnostic experiments on coastal evolutions at different spatial and temporal time scales, discharge and suspended load flux and wave climate scenarios will be conducted to explore the responses of coastal evolution to sediment budget and coastal morphodynamics. Dynamic mechanisms and impacts of sediment budget, suspended sediment transport under the tide-induced and wind-driven residual circulations, sediment winnowing caused by wave and wave climate change on the decadal time-scale coastal evolution of the western Bohai Bay will be diagnostic analyzed. It would promote the innovative development on theoretical system and prediction approaches of coastal evolution morphodynamic mechanisms in the field of the macro and mega-time scale coastal evolution research.