中国东南沿海风暴潮活动强度的气候尺度演变与时空变异机制

综合运用全球变化、大气科学、海洋科学、遥感与地理信息科学、模式分析与空间统计等学科理论和技术方法，以中国东南沿海(江苏省、上海市、浙江省、福建省、广东省、海南省及广西自治区等)为案例研究区，采用站点实测潮位与卫星高度计遥感数据时空映射融合技术，发展和构建中高精度(时间分辨率24小时；空间分辨率0.25°×0.25°)的风暴潮事件活动强度(增水高度、持续时间、分布范围等)信息检测与重建方法，准确揭示过去近60年来中国东南沿海风暴潮事件发生频次及活动强度的气候尺度演变过程和时空变异特征。科学阐明全球气候变化以及西太平洋—印度洋地区主要气候系统内部变率(ENSO、PDO等)对中国东南沿海风暴潮活动强度时空变异的影响，预测未来气候变化背景下中国东南沿海风暴潮活动强度地理空间分布格局的变化趋势。对两个关键科学问题形成比较明确的认识和结论，推动风暴潮灾害理论的不断完善以及风暴潮事件预测方法的创新发展。

Climate change and internal variabilities in the climate system have important impacts on evolution and variability of storm surge activity intensity at the climate scale. As a case study in the southeast coastal areas of China including Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, Hainan provinces and Guangxi Autonomous Region, theories of global climate change, atmospheric sciences, marine sciences, remote sensing and GIS, numerical simulation, statistics etc are comprehensively used in this project to establish detection and reconstruction methods of storm surge intensity with moderate - high resolution (24 hours time resolution and 0.25°×0.25° spatial resolution) by fusion of data from satellite remote sensing and in-situ tidal observation. The objective of this project is to accurately reveal the climate scale evolution processes and spatio-temporal variability features of storm surge occurrence frequency and activity intensity over the past 60 years in the southeast coastal oceans of China. The tendency of geospatial distribution patterns of storm surge intensity in the future will be predicted under the elucidation of the impacts of global warming and internal variabilities such as ENSO、PDO over the western Pacific – Indian oceans on the spatio-temporal evolution of storm surge intensity in the southeast coastal oceans of China. On those basis, two key scientific issues in this project will get a clear understanding and conclusions. Disaster theories and prediction methods about storm surge extreme event will be pushed forward to get innovation and development.