区域农业水土资源复合系统恢复力时空特征分析及其约束效应研究

针对以往区域农业水土资源开发利用中忽视系统恢复力、容易造成系统超负荷运行的弊端，以三江平原为研究平台，将农业水、土资源视为一个复合系统，综合运用试验分析与现代数据处理方法，对其恢复力进行整合研究。首先构建农业水土资源复合系统恢复力适宜评价指标体系，计算综合恢复力指数，筛选恢复力最优诊断方法，分析恢复力时空变化特征，绘制恢复力空间变异分区图；然后计算获取恢复力关键驱动因子，剖析其综合驱动机制，进而搭建恢复力情景模拟框架，分析其未来演变态势；最后建立恢复力约束下的农业种植结构优化模型，探索模型求解新方法，并结合优化调整效率评价确定农业种植结构最优布局方案，进而计算约束度，分析恢复力对农业种植结构的约束效应。研究成果可为破解系统恢复力测度分析方法不完善、优化模型求解困难、优化调整效率评价与约束效应分析缺乏问题提供技术理论支撑，对于促进区域农业水土资源高效利用与可持续发展具有重要理论与现实意义。

In the course of regional agricultural water and soil resources development and utilization, the system resilience has been ignored in the past, so that it was easy to generate the overload operation of the system. Aiming at the aforesaid defect, taking Sanjiang Plain as the research platform, agricultural water resources and soil resources will be seen as a composite system to comprehensively study its resilience through synthetically applying experimental analysis and modern data processing methods. First of all, the suitable evaluation index system of regional agricultural water and soil resources composite system resilience will be constructed, the comprehensive resilience index will be calculated, the optimal resilience diagnosis method will be screened, the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of the resilience will be analyzed, and the spatial variability zone map of the resilience will be drawn. After that, the key driving factors of the resilience will be calculated and obtained, the comprehensive driving mechanism of the resilience will be dissected, and then the scenarios simulation framework of the resilience will be constructed for analyzing its future evolution trend. At last, the agricultural planting structure optimization model will be established under the resilience constraint, the new method for solving model will be explored, and the agricultural planting structure optimization layout scheme will be confirmed combining with the efficiency evaluation of optimization adjustment. And then the constraint degree will be calculated for analyzing the resilience’s constraint effect on agricultural planting structure. The research achievements can provide technical and theoretical supports for solving problems of incomplete measurement and analysis methods of the system resilience, difficulty in solving optimization models and lack of the optimization adjustment efficiency evaluation and the constraint effect analysis, and have important theoretical and practical significance for promoting high efficient utilization of regional agricultural water and soil resources and regional sustainable development.