级联失效是威胁国防关键基础设施安全运行的主要故障模式之一，具有时空传播、耦合相关以及故障类型多样化等特点。针对多动力学级联失效传播快、涌现强及防控难等管理问题，以评估、优化和控制级联失效过程为目标，开展级联失效的诱导渗流效应的产生机理、时空传播和防控方法等基础理论创新研究。首先，建立诱导渗流效应多动力学级联失效模型，构建风险量化分析与评估方法，研究发生机制和作用规律；其次，根据故障空间分布和时间关联特征，提出时空传播理论解析方法，实现故障路径溯源，并研究临界指数对诱导渗流效应传播影响；第三，分别从结构和功能出发，研究网络薄弱环节识别方法，结合启发式优化方法和图卷积网络提出结构微调策略以及网络负载容限优化方法，建立诱导渗流效应的防控管理方法。本课题旨在为国防关键基础设施系统运行可靠性管理和评估优化奠定理论基础，为增强关键基础设施的持续防御能力，提高管理保障能力提供新的方法和理论支撑。

Cascading failure is one of the main failure modes that threatens the operation of defense critical infrastructure, and has the characteristics of spatial-temporal propagation, interdependency and multiple failure modes. As for the management problem of fast propagation, strong emergence and difficult prevention for multi-dynamic cascading failures, we aim to evaluate, optimize and control the cascading failure process by studying the mechanism of induced percolation effects, propagation and controlling methods of cascading failures. Firstly, a multi-dynamic cascading failure model of induced percolation effect will be developed. Then, the quantitative modeling analysis and evaluation methods will be used to study the cascading failure mechanism and interaction between failures. Secondly, based on the spatial distribution of failures and time correlation, a spatial-temporal propagation theory will be proposed to search the failure paths and study the impact of critical exponent on the propagation of the induced percolation effect. Thirdly, from the perspective of structure and function, we will study the identification method of weak components. Moreover, we will propose an optimized method of structural strategy and network load capacity by both the heuristic optimization method and graph convolutional network. Then we will ultimately obtain the prevention and control methods of induced percolation effect. Our research will lay the theoretical foundation for defense critical infrastructure reliability management and evaluation analysis, and provide new methods and theoretical approaches for enhancing the sustainable defense capabilities of critical infrastructures and improving management support capabilities.