增强型地热系统(EGS)储热量评估的三维模糊反演模型研究

增强型地热系统（EGS）的有效开发利用将为能源革命提供广阔的前景，资源评估受到地热参数不确定性的约束已经成为研究热点。针对EGS热储层热物理参数难以精确测定的难点问题，建立三维稳态导热反问题的模糊推理方法对储量参数进行反演计算。采用传热学正/反问题的理论建模、模型校核、模型的实验验证和高性能数值计算相结合的研究方案，将有限个测试井的测试温度作为模型输入，采用模糊推理算法，对储层的热物性参数、几何边界、边界条件和热源进行参数反演，进而建立热物理参数与储热量之间的数量关系；探索待求参数的目标函数及其敏度计算公式，揭示热储层温度测点位置和误差水平对反问题求解结果的影响。为热储层三维稳态导热反问题求解提供科学基础，并为增强型地热系统资源勘探与利用提供理论依据。

Efficient exploitation and usage of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) provide wide prospect for energy revolution. There has been a spate of interest in the resource assessment of EGS because of the uncertainties of the thermo-physics parameters of EGS. Aiming to resolving the scientific problems of accurate determination of thermal parameters of EGS reservoirs, this study will develop fuzzy inference methods for solving three-dimensional stead-state inverse heat-conduction problems; we designed a research methodology of combining direct-inverse heat transfer modeling, model calibration, experimental validation, and high-performance numerical calculation, whereby only finite temperature measurements of testing wells are used as the inputs, and geometric boundary, boundary conditions, and heat resources can be estimated by the fuzzy inference. The research also aims to explore the objective functions and sensitivity equations of unknown parameters, and to reveal the impacts of testing point positions and error levels on the solution of the inverse problem. It is expected to provide theoretic foundation of solving inverse problems of three-dimensional stead-state heat conduction, and provide scientific basis of the engineering applications of resource assessment for EGS.