全球变暖对东亚降水季节循环的影响和未来预估

全球变暖显著影响东亚季风，导致我国水资源的时空分布发生改变，准确预估未来的降水变化是经济社会可持续发展和应对气候变化的重大需求。季节循环是东亚季风降水的基本特征，主要表现为位相和振幅的变化，其异常变化是导致季节降水异常的重要成因。传统上针对全球变暖对东亚降水影响的研究主要关注季节平均变化，而对季节循环的影响尚无清晰、全面的认识。为此，本项目将东亚历史降水的季节循环作为评估标准和研究对象，基于观测、CMIP6模式历史模拟和未来气候变化情景下的预估结果，重点研究（1）全球变暖对未来东亚降水季节循环固有模态和干湿季节降水的影响；（2）季节循环的改变导致我国降水在季节和空间上的变化趋势。通过以上研究，项目将阐明全球变暖对东亚降水时空分布的影响，加深对气候变化如何影响我国水资源的认识，对我国农业、水资源和电力供应等相关规划提供科学支撑。

Global warming significantly affects the East Asian monsoon, leading to changes in the spatial and temporal distribution of water resources in China. The reliable projection of the future precipitation seasonal cycle is an urgent demand for the sustainable development of the economy and society and climate change strategies. The seasonal cycle is a fundamental feature of the East Asian monsoon precipitation, which is manifested as the change of phase and amplitude and is a significant cause of the seasonal precipitation anomaly. Traditionally, studies on the impact of climate change on precipitation in East Asia have focused on seasonal mean change, and there is no clear and comprehensive understanding of the effects on seasonal cycles. Our project intends to focus and identify the seasonal cycle of historical precipitation as an evaluation criterion. Based on the observations, historical simulations and future projections of CMIP6 models, the project will mainly explore: (1) the projections of the seasonal cycle modes and the wet and dry seasonal transition of the East Asian monsoon precipitation; (2) how seasonal cycles can modulate the seasonal and spatial distribution of precipitation in East Asia under global warming. After that, the project expects to clarify the impact of global warming on the temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation in East Asia, deepen the understanding of how climate change affects water resources in China. The results can provide scientific support for China's agriculture, water resources, and power supply related planning.