随着社会老龄化进程的加快，老年人口的比例和数量不断增加。针对老年人运动能力和行为方式的特殊性，本项目将通过可控实验与实际观测相结合的方法，量化老年个体特征及环境因素对密集人群运动基本参数的影响，探索老年人群的拥塞动力学演化规律。采用虚拟实验和问卷调查等方式，研究老年人在不同环境条件下的路径选择、出口选择、障碍物避让等决策行为特征。建立能反映老年人特殊的身体特征和运动模式的人群运动模型，并从定性与定量、宏观与微观方面对模型的可靠性进行验证。最终结合实验结果、理论分析和数值模拟，提出兼具安全和效率并适合老年人的人群管理和疏散诱导策略。项目成果对于深入理解行人动力学规律，提高人群的安全管理水平有重要意义。

The world’s elderly population is quickly growing, both in its absolute numbers and in its percentage relative to the younger population. Given the particularity of mobility behaviors of the elderly, the project investigates pedestrian dynamics for the crowd including aged people by experiments and modeling. The formation and evolution of jam in crowd will be studied by experiments under laboratory condition and field observations. The influence of environmental factors on pedestrians’ movement will be studied by carrying out virtual experiments and questionnaires. We will study how aged people react and make decisions at different types of facility geometries and environment conditions regarding to exit choice, route choice as well as avoiding obstacles. Based on the experimental results, pedestrian movement model will be developed by considering the particular behaviors and movement patterns of the elders. To guarantee the reliability and accuracy of the proposed model, the parameters in the model will be calibrated quantitatively and qualitatively by using the empirical data and observation. Finally, intervention strategies and guidance methods which is available for the crowd with aged pedestrians will be proposed on the basis of experimental studies, theory analysis and model simulation. The efficiency and security of the strategies will be validated with virtual experiments. The results of the project will be helpful to understand pedestrian dynamics and jamming evolutions. It is also significant on improving the level of crowd management to guarantee the security and comfort of pedestrian movement and providing basic methods and scientific basis for it.