分析煤炭生产、煤炭运输、发电、输电到用电的煤电能源供应链各个环节之间协调发展的风险衍生源,包括：电源布局对煤炭运输的风险影响，电源结构对煤炭生产的风险影响，发电调度政策对发电节煤的风险影响，电价政策对发电类型投资的风险影响，新能源发电比例对煤炭投资的风险影响，新能源发电价格政策对发电结构、电网企业购电成本的风险影响，用户电价对于发电节煤的风险影响，环境约束对燃煤发电能力的风险影响，煤炭价格与煤运价格对发电成本的风险影响等，并通过系统动力学、ISM、贝叶斯网络等构建风险动因模型；研究煤炭生产、煤运、发电、输电到用电之间的投资风险递展机理、价格风险递展机理、规模结构风险递展机理、价格风险递展机理等，并构建机理反映模型；构建煤炭生产、煤运、发电、供电到用电的供应链风险控制模拟模型，包括煤炭生产、煤运、发电、输电之间投资周期关系模型、规模结构关系模型、价格联动关系模型、可再生能源发电等。

The energy supply chain of coal and power consists of coal production, coal transportation, power generation, power transmission, and power utilization. The risk derived sources of balance development between all links of the energy supply chain are analyzed, including coal transportation risk caused by power generation configuration, coal production risk caused by power supply structure, coal conservation risk of power generation caused by scheduling approach to power generation, the investment risk of different power types caused by genetating price policy, the investment risk of coal caused by the installed capacity proportion of new energy generation, the risk of power generation structure and power purchasing cost of grid enterprise caused by tariff policy of new energy generation, coal conservation risk of power generation caused by electricity tariff for consumer, the risk of coal-fired power generation capacity caused by environmental constraints, generating cost risk caused by coal price and coal transportation price, and so on. Risk Driver Models are constructed by using the theory of System Dynamics, ISM, and Bayesian Network, etc.Risk Transference and Expansion Mechanisms on investment, cost, scale structure and price between all links of energy supply chain are researched, and Mechanism Reaction Models are constructed.Risk control policy simulation models for energy supply chain are built, including investment cycle relational model, relational model of the amount of investment, scale structure relational model, price relational model,sustainable energy generating, etc.