近年国际学术界关注人文因素在人-环境耦合系统和全球环境变化研究中的关键作用。本项目立足于国际地学前沿和我国沿海快速城市化/快速环境变化的具体实际，集成城市地理学、景观空间分析和突变模型等方法，以连云港海岸带城市蔓延区这一典型社会-生态系统为例，在景观生态安全阈值及预警研究结果基础上，提出基于“阈值-恢复力-管治”的景观生态恢复力研究思路(城市蔓延式开发-海岸湿地保护-生态系统突变释放-生态管治与政策更新)，重点开展以下研究：(1)关键城市蔓延区海岸湿地退化快速变化检测与突变特征分析，(2)海岸带城市蔓延-湿地退化耦合系统累积性环境影响和生态服务功能评价，(3)湿地水质环境和水生态系统约束条件下景观生态恢复力建模，(4)科学-政策界面的生态管治应对策略研究。最终回答海岸带城市蔓延区景观生态在何种状况下会发生突变、如何运用景观生态恢复力模型来调控湿地结构与功能、规避突变所带来的危害等关键问题。

In recent decades, human factor play a key roles in the coupled human-environment system (CHANS) and global environmental change (GEC) research. The International Human Dimension Program (IHDP) and its core project Urbanization and Global Environmental Change (UGEC) have been formalized to cover the rapidly urbanization and environmental problems. This project develops an adaptive cycle system in the context of Threshold- Resilience-Governance: coastal urban sprawl exploitation-costal wetland conservation-ecosystem catastrophe release- ecological governance and policy reorganization. We propose to examine urbanization and wetland ecosystem (a typical case of social-ecological systems) for selected Chinese coastal city (Lianyungang, Jiangsu Province) to achieve the following objectives: 1) to analyze the detection of degradation and characteristics of landscape catastrophe in coastal urban sprawl area, 2) to assess ecosystem services and function of the coupled coastal urban sprawl and wetland degradation system, 3) to develop a landscape ecological resilience model with the constraints of water quality and wetland ecosystem, 4) to provide adaptive recommendations for ecological governance on the science-policy interface. Finally, we will answer two scientific questions: 1) if there are any catastrophe in the process of rapid urbanization and sprawl, and 2) how to use the landscape resilience model to mitigate negative effects of catastrophe. This effort will improve our understanding of China''s urbanization and ecosystem changes and have a practical policy dimension for selected city.