空气污染影响安全驾驶行为的作用机理与干预策略研究

批准号:
72004170
项目类别:
青年科学基金项目
资助金额:
24.0 万元
负责人:
余红伟
依托单位:
学科分类:
环境与生态管理
结题年份:
2023
批准年份:
2020
项目状态:
已结题
项目参与者:
余红伟
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中文摘要
交通事故是威胁人民群众人身安全、造成经济财产损失的重要因素。空气污染作为交通行车中难以避免的环境因素,将对安全驾驶产生不利影响。由于空气污染对驾驶者的非视觉影响作用较为隐性化,当前对其影响机理缺乏系统地认识,也缺乏针对性的预防策略。本课题将针对空气污染影响安全驾驶行为的作用机理与干预策略问题展开研究。首先,通过分析风险驾驶的行为表现特征与行为后果形式,明确风险驾驶行为的具体外在表现与可能产生的严重后果,并基于个体交通驾驶违法犯罪案例的大样本数据,从宏观地区层面运用工具变量方法估计空气污染导致风险驾驶行为发生的因果效应,同时运用动态面板模型测度空气污染对交通安全严重后果的影响效应;其次,围绕驾驶个体的生理、心理与认知等层面厘清空气污染影响安全驾驶的核心传导机制,建立起空气污染影响安全驾驶行为的作用机理模型,运用行为监测与调查等方法对空气污染影响风险驾驶行为的机理进行识别,并运用结构方程模型进行拟合验证;最后,围绕安全驾驶的影响因素,系统地提炼出各类干预策略集合,结合空气污染影响安全驾驶的行为机理构建起组合干预的系统分析模型,并运用系统动力学方法对各组合干预策略进行全过程动态仿真分析,基于仿真结果选择最优组合的干预策略设计并实现政策转化。课题研究将具有重要的理论意义与应用价值。在理论方面,课题将系统揭示出空气污染对安全驾驶行为的影响机理,一方面拓展了空气污染的个体行为机理研究,另一方面也丰富了交通安全的环境机理理论;在应用方面,将设计提出更加全面系统化的干预组合策略,一方面将为驾驶个体的安全行车提供新的策略选择,另一方面也为相关管理部门的交通安全防治提供新的政策参考。
英文摘要
Traffic accident is an important factor that threatens people's personal safety and causes economic property loss. As an unavoidable environmental factor in traffic, air pollution will have a negative impact on safe driving. As the non-visual effect of air pollution on drivers is more recessive, there is no systematic understanding of its mechanism, and there is no targeted prevention strategy. In this project, the mechanism and intervention strategy of air pollution affecting safe driving behavior are studied. First of all, by analyzing the behavior characteristics and behavior consequence forms of risk driving, the specific external performance of risk driving behavior and the possible serious consequences are specified. Based on the large sample data of individual traffic driving crime cases, the instrument variable method is used to estimate the causal effect of air pollution-induced risky driving behavior at the macro-regional level, and the dynamic panel model is used to measure the effect of air pollution on serious traffic safety consequences. Secondly, focusing on the physiological, psychological and cognitive aspects of individual drivers, the core conduction mechanisms of air pollution affecting safe driving are clarified, and the action mechanism models are also established. The mechanism of air pollution affecting risky driving behavior is identified by means of behavioral monitoring and investigation, and the structural equation model is used to test the results. Finally, a set of intervention strategies is extracted systematically, and a system analysis model of combined intervention is built based on the behavioral mechanism of air pollution affecting safe driving. The system dynamics method is used to carry out the dynamic simulation analysis of the whole process of each intervention strategy. Based on the simulation results, the optimal combination of intervention strategy is selected and the policy transformation is realized. In theory, the project will systematically reveal the mechanism of air pollution on safe driving behavior. On the one hand, it expands the study of individual behavior mechanism of air pollution; on the other hand, it also enriches the theory of environmental mechanism of traffic safety. In practice, the project will design a more comprehensive and systematic intervention combination strategy. On the one hand, it offers a new strategy choice for the safe driving of individual drivers; On the other hand it also provides the new policy reference for the traffic administrate departments for road safety prevention.
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DOI:--
发表时间:2022
期刊:投资研究
影响因子:--
作者:余红伟;沈芳;钟国栋;扶婕;吕宵;石大千
通讯作者:石大千
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-22322-3
发表时间:2022
期刊:Environmental Science and Pollution Research
影响因子:--
作者:Hongwei Yu;Xiaoyue Hu;Juan Gao
通讯作者:Juan Gao
DOI:--
发表时间:2022
期刊:中国软科学
影响因子:--
作者:余红伟;徐嘉慧;林子祥;石大千
通讯作者:石大千
DOI:10.1007/s11356-022-20230-0
发表时间:2022-04-20
期刊:ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH
影响因子:5.8
作者:Shi, Daqian;Liu, Ziwei;Yu, Hongwei
通讯作者:Yu, Hongwei
国内基金
海外基金
