目前国际上医学临床实践决策证据来源提倡遵循“6S”金字塔模型，而居于塔尖的就是“计算机辅助决策系统（system）”。本研究拟从临床研究中抽取影响疗效评价的常见影响因素，通过创建符合中医药临床实际的新型疗效预测模型，根据患者个体特征预测治疗结果，从而获得精准疗效预测实现system，用于指导临床实践决策。本研究将依托一项中药治疗溃疡性结肠炎的大样本队列研究开展，通过改良经典的logistic回归模型筛选候选预测因子，形成判别性准确性高的新型预测模型，并编制小程序调试模型，通过一致性ROC分析曲线验证模型。与此同时，为了提升预测模型类中医药研究的规范性和公认度，基于针对预测模型的开发、验证或更新的国际规范TRIPOD，融合本研究的模型开发实际过程，研制一套TRIPOD—TCM声明，为未来中医临床预测模型类研究提供方法学指导和借鉴。

At present, the international evidence sources of medical clinical practice decision-making advocate following the "6S" pyramid model, and the "computer-aided decision-making system" is at the top. This study intends to extract common influencing factors affecting the evaluation of therapeutic effect from clinical studies, and develop a new curative effect prediction model in line with the clinical practice of traditional Chinese medicine, so as to obtain a precise curative effect prediction system, which can be used to guide clinical practice decision-making. This study will rely on a large sample cohort study on the treatment of ulcerative colitis with traditional Chinese medicine. Candidate predictors will be screened by the improved classical logistic regression model, and a new predictive model with high discriminant accuracy will be formed. A small program debugging model will be developed, and the model will be verified by the consistency ROC analysis curve. At the same time, in order to improve the standardization and recognition of TCM research on predictive models, based on the international standard TRIPOD for the development, verification or update of predictive models, a set of TRIPOD--TCM statement will be developed by integrating the actual process of model development of this study, providing methodological guidance and reference for future research on TCM clinical predictive models.