我国长江上游地区是气候变化较为敏感的区域，近年来旱涝灾害的频繁发生和水土流失的加剧已成为制约该区社会经济可持续发展的重要因素。因此，开展长江上游地区气候变化及其对流域水沙变化的影响研究对该区防灾减灾、水资源管理、农业生产和生态环境建设具有重要的现实意义。本项目以长江上游地区金沙江流域为研究对象，基于1960-2015年温度和降水的日数据及径流量和输沙量的年数据，通过Mann-Kendall非参数检验法，Sen斜率估计法、双累积曲线和归因分析等多种方法相结合的途径，以水沙变化的关键影响因子分析为切入点，针对研究区主要的潜在驱动因素（极端气候变化和人类活动），揭示和量化极端气候事件对水沙变化的影响。研究结果可为国家防灾减灾、流域水资源的合理利用及保护和改善生态环境提供重要的科学依据。

The upper reaches of Yangtze River is very sensitive to climate change. The frequent occurrence of droughts and floods as well as aggravated soil erosion in recent years have become important factors that restricting the sustainable socio-economic development in the region. Therefore, the research of climate change and its effect on variation of water and sediment in upper reaches of Yangtze River is of great importance to disaster prevention and mitigation, water management, agricultural production and the ecological environment. This project will be focused on the Jinsha River Basin of upper reaches of Yangtze River. The daily data of temperature and precipitation and annual data of runoff and sediment load during 1960~2015 will be used. Variety of analysis methods will be used for the study of extreme climate events and variation of water and sediment, including Mann-Kendall non-parametric test, Sen’s slope estimator, double mass curve and attribution analysis. Based on the key factors of water and sediment variation, the impact of extreme climate events on water and sediment variation were indicated and quantified according to the main driving factors (extreme climate events and human activities). The results of the research could provide an important scientific basis for national disaster prevention and mitigation, rational use of water resources as well as protection and improvement of ecological environment.