日冕物质抛射及伴随激波在行星际空间传播过程及其到达时间预报是空间天气研究和预报的一个重要方面。然而，目前的预报模型（经验的、物理的等）多是基于太阳活动23周事件建立的，受观测手段和认识水平的限制，模型预报的精度处于"瓶颈期"，很难进一步明显提高。自STEREO双星上天以来（2006年），人们在太阳爆发活动的三维拓扑位形重构及其远距离追踪两个方面开发出了许多有价值的方法和技术，积累了大量的观测研究经验。本项目拟针对多颗卫星观测到的第24周太阳活动事件（2008－2018年），使用多种观测反演方法和手段，采用个例研究、统计分析和模型训练相结合的方式来研究太阳/行星际扰动的传播规律，建立具有国际领先水平的新一代CME/shock到达时间物理预报模式。项目研究成果有助于人们对太阳爆发活动在日地空间传播规律的深入了解和认识，并可服务于我国的空间天气预报事业。

The propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their related shocks in interplenatary space and corresponding arrival time predictions are an important ingredient of space weather prediction. Current models in this respect, including empirical models, physics-based models and so on, are mainly based on the solar disturbance events of Solar Cycle 23. Their prediction accuracies, after undergoing a period of "bottleneck", are difficult to get improved evidently due to the limited observational techniques and poor professional knowledge about them. A lot of valuable methods/techniques on the 3D reconstruction of CME morphology as well on their long-distance tracking have been developed after the successful launch of STEREO in 2006. Abundant experience in this kind of study has been accumulated. This proposal is focused on large solar transients during Solar Cycle 24 observed by multi-spacecraft from different view angles. Various observational methods and reverse-modeling techniques will be adopted to investigate the propagation of solar/interplanetary disturbances in details. Case study, statistical analysis and theoretical models will be incorporated to establish a new generation of the physics-based prediction models for the arrival time of CME/shock with the international leading level. The outcome of this proposal will help us to better understand the propagation of solar eruptions in the heliosphere and serve the national undertaking of space weather forecasting as well.