变化环境下的水资源响应及对策研究是目前国际水资源领域学科前沿，也是区域经济社会快速发展中水资源可持续利用迫切需要研究解决的重大难题之一。本项目针对华南地区湿润气候、高密度经济发展、剧烈人类活动以及水资源系统变异突出等特点，开展变化环境下水资源脆弱性及适应性管理机制研究。基于水资源脆弱性的概念与内涵，引进自组织数据挖掘的方法来构建变化环境下水资源需求势能的模型表达，探讨变化环境下自然因素本身的随机性和经济社会发展本身的不确定性对水资源需求的影响程度及系统响应机制，解析社会经济发展过程中需水量的满足程度受潜在水质风险的影响过程，建立变化环境下耦合用水主体行为和政府主体行为的水资源可持续利用模式。本研究对推进华南湿润地区高密度经济发展情况下的水资源可持续利用，完善变化环境下华南湿润地区的水资源响应理论体系及方法，具有重要的科学意义和实用价值。

Research on system response and countermeasures of water resources utilization under changing environgment is one of the academic frontiers in the field of international water resources and is one of the most urgent issues that need to be solved during the rapid economic and social development.Based on the characteristics of humid climate, high-intensity economic development, intense human activities and water system variation in South China, this study is carried out to explore water resources vulnerability and the corresponding adaptive management under Changing environment.Based on the concept and connotation of water resources vulnerability, the method of self-organizing data mining is introduced into the construction of the model of potential energy of water resources demand.And then it is to discuss the impact of the randomness of natural variability and the uncertainty of the social and economic system under the changing environment on water resources demand, to investigate the satisfaction degree of water resoures impacted by the potential water quality risk and the sustainable utilization mode based on the coupling of user and government behavior.This study has great scientific significance and practical value in promoting sustainable utilization of water resources and in improving the theory and strategic study of water resources in the high-intensity economic development zone in South China.