物流集群与内陆地区外向型产业发展的耦合机理：以重庆和成都为例

With the ‘One Belt and One Road’ project and Yangtze River economic belt construction, and the rapid development of internet economics, export-oriented industries and logistics clusters in Chinese inland areas had accelerated, the number, types and new elements increase. Both have presented the situation of geographical space fusion, linkage development and the imbalance between supply and demand. The study of coupling mechanism between logistics cluster and export-oriented industry in these regions is a very urgent problem. Taking Chongqing and Chengdu as examples, this paper build a spatial database with attribute of latitude and longitude and time by using data collection and spatial analysis technology based on online map service platform and WEB pages. The boundary of logistics clusters and level of export-oriented industries are identified by the methods of GIS spatial analysis and factor analysis. Based on the analysis of the multi-scale coupling relations with economy, industry and space location, this paper make empirical researches on the coupling degree between different logistics clusters and the export-oriented industries by the methods of spatial econometrics and industry correlation degree evaluation. According to the “spatial dependence” view , the effect of time-space astringency and space output effect in logistics clusters are measured by improving evaluation method of traffic advantage degree, which are formed by coupling export-oriented industries and logistics clusters. Finally, the measures of space consolidation pattern and space governance path are put forward to strengthen the level and ability of spatial coupling. This studies could enrich the theories of logistics cluster and provide technical assistance to promote efficiency of logistics cluster and level of export-oriented industries.

在“一带一路”、长江经济带建设和互联网经济迅猛发展形势下，内陆地区物流集群和外向型产业发展水平不断提高，数量、类型和新要素增多，促进了两者间区位融合和联动发展，加剧了物流供需的结构性矛盾，亟待深入认识相互间耦合机理。本项目以重庆和成都为例，采用基于在线地图服务平台和WEB网页的数据采集与空间分析技术，构建具有经纬度和时间的多属性空间数据库；运用GIS空间分析和因子分析法，进行物流集群识别和外向型产业水平测度；在经济、产业和空间区位多维多尺度耦合关系认识基础上，采用空间计量和产业关联度评价方法，实证不同类型物流集群与外向型产业的耦合程度；基于空间依赖视角，改进交通优势度评价方法，评估耦合形成的时空收敛效应和空间产出效应；最后，提出空间整合模式与空间治理路径，强化空间耦合水平与能力。研究成果既有利于丰富物流集群理论，又能为提升我国“一带一路”沿线地区的物流集群效率和外向型产业发展水平提供指导。

以“一带一路”倡议、长江经济带建设、成渝地区双城经济圈建设为背景，重点关注新数据源对物流集群研究的新机遇，主要开展了中国物流集群的量化甄别与分类评价，重庆市物流企业集群的生态位及形成机制，物流集群间区位耦合关系评价，成都物流空间格局演变及物流集群边界识别、国际物流与外向型产业耦合关系分析等工作。研究结果表明：（1）从地级市视角来看，中国物流集群主要集中于胡焕庸线东侧，呈现广覆盖和高集聚特征；物流集群在城市群尺度形成了由“主核——次核——一般节点”构成的多层级核心-边缘结构。（2）以重庆市为案例来看，物流企业的空间分布的高密度低态值问题较突出。物流企业集群与物流设施的空间耦合程度较低，“十一五”时期，耦合程度>0.4街道仅有5个；“十二五”时期，耦合程度>0.4街道有3个。（3）以成都市为案例来看，物流空间经历了集聚、郊区化和再集聚的演变过程。位于郊区的物流企业生存率更高，5年、10年和15年生存概率分别为0.905、0.723、0.666，高于市区的0.855、0.613、0.468，物流集群发展对提高企业生存状态有积极意义；从成都国际物流业与外向型经济的关系来看，物流用地价格与外向型产业发展有正向关系。本研究的核心数据支撑是建立了基于SIC码的物流集群空间数据库，实现了街道尺度、距离尺度的物流集群量化识别。本研究的科学意义体现为：系统认识了物流集群的形成、发展与演变规律，建立了物流集群的生态位评价方法、物流集群间空间耦合评价方法，在物流集群边界识别方面有创新性成果。本研究有利于完善物流集群形成与演变的理论基础，定量解释物流集群形成与发展的关键因素，为物流集群的高效治理，以及发挥其对产业的支撑作用提供决策依据。研究期间，在国际主流SCI/SSCI学术期刊发表学术论文7篇，其中：Journal of Transport Geography 1篇，IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems 1篇，Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space 1篇；申请发明专利2项；支撑了5位研究生论文选题，相关成果编入高等教育出版社教材和政府部门研究报告。

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