华北地区是我国大气颗粒物（PM）和有害重金属污染最严重地区之一。本项目拟通过开展超低排放电厂、燃煤锅炉、水泥厂等典型源烟气测试和现场调查等方法构建本地化排放因子和活动水平数据库及排放因子置信度等级和清单不确定性评价方法，建立2015-2017年华北七省市大气PM及重金属（铅、镉、铬、砷、镍等）精细网格动态排放清单；将清单输入WRF-CMAQ模式模拟研究并揭示区域大气PM10/PM2.5和重金属污染时空变化特征及城市间传输规律；在重点传输通道城市同步开展不同季节和重污染过程大气颗粒物离线/在线观测和重金属化学形态表征，利用PMF等模型解析其来源及重污染成因贡献；探索研发集成源清单/模式模拟、离线/在线观测等多种技术的区域大气颗粒物及重金属动态综合源解析技术方法。以2017为基准年模拟评估2020-2030年不同情景下重点城市大气颗粒物及重金属排放污染变化趋势，为重金属污染防治提供科学依据。

The Region of Seven Provinces in North China (including Beijing and Tianjin municipalities, Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong and Henan provinces, as well as Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, abbreviated to SPNC region hereafter) has been well known as one of the most polluted regions suffering from frequently heavy haze pollution featured with very high concentrations of PM2.5 and toxic heavy metals (Pb, Cd, Cr, As, Ni, Mn, Sb, etc.), which are identified as carcinogenic substances for human health by WHO. In this study, with multiple methods such as flue gas measurements for selected sources including ultra-low emission power plants, industrial coal-fired boilers and cement plants, as well as field survey and investigation of relevant literature and statistics, we will compile the dynamic databases of activity levels and emission factors which covers major emission sources of PM and typical toxic heavy metals (Pb, Cd, Cr, As, Ni, Mn, Sb, etc.) in the SPNC region, and accordingly to establish the regional emission inventory of PM and typical heavy metals (Pb, Cd, Cr, As, Ni, Mn, Sb, etc.) for the year 2015-2017 and conduct quantitative assessment for the emission inventory uncertainties by adopting Bootstrap and Monte Carlo simulation. Then, with the developed emission inventory as input, we will simulate the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of PM10/PM2.5 and heavy metals concentrations as well as their pollution transmission patterns among different cities in the SPNC region by using WRF-CMAQ models. At the same time, during the varied seasons and typical heavy haze episodes at the selected several key cities (which belong to those of the 28 regional air pollution transmission cities specified by the Chinese Ministry of Environmental Protection), we will carry out synchronously offline PM10/PM2.5/PM1.0 sampling and determine their concentration and chemical occurrences of typical heavy metals by using instrumental measurements such as HPLC-ICP-MS and HPLC-HG-AFS, and investigate their source apportionment and explore their contributions on the formation causes of heavy pollution episodes by using multiple models like PMF and PSCF. Furthermore, we will attempt to establish an integrated dynamic source apportionment method that incorporates positive emission inventory/model simulation with reversed receptor source apportionment methods relying on offline membrane sampling and online continuous monitoring. In addition, based on current situation evaluation for the 2017 reference year and assumptions of three different scenarios, we will forecast and simulate the future trends of emission and pollution characteristics of PM2.5 and heavy metals in SPNC region by the target year of 2020 and 2030. We believe the expected outcomes of this application research work will inevitably provide scientific basis on the comprehensive control of PM10/PM2.5 and the associated toxic heavy metals pollution in North China.