近几十年的大规模人工造林迅速增加了我国陆地生态系统的碳贮存。随着幼年林逐渐成熟、新造林不断出现、造林持续向干旱区推进，未来我国森林的固碳耗水能力也将随之变化，因此亟待评估。尤其是在气候变化情景下、处于不同管理方式（如施肥、除草、采伐）和强度（低、中、高）的森林，其固碳和耗水能力差异更加复杂化。本项目基于实测数据、遥感监测和模型模拟相结合的方法，探索未来气候变化情景下（RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5）、处于不同管理方式和强度的人工林与天然林固碳和耗水能力的差异。本项目将1）基于遥感数据和申请人建立的土地利用重构模型，改进人工林和天然林分布数据集；2）基于实测数据严格率定和验证陆地生态系统模型；3）通过设置不同气候变化情景下、不同经营管理方式和强度的模拟实验，量化并阐释森林的固碳耗水能力的机理性差异。本研究力求为指导我国未来森林管理、造林规划、提高森林的服务功能提出积极建议。

Large scale forestation projects implemented during the last few decades have greatly increased the carbon stock in China's terrestrial ecosystem. Given the young forests growing toward mature age, the continuous establishment of new plantations, and forestation projects marching into the arid region, carbon sequestration and water consumption abilities in China’s forests are expected to change, which are urgently need to be assessed. Moreover, future climate change and varied human managements (e.g. fertilization, weeding, and harvesting under low, mid- and high intensities) will complicate the differences of the carbon sequestration and water consumption abilities between forests. Based on field measurements, remote sensing monitoring, and model simulation approaches, we plan to explore the differences of China’s planted forests (PFs) and natural forests (NFs) in carbon sequestration and water consumption abilities under varied human managements in future climate scenarios (i.e. RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). More specifically, this project will 1) improve PFs and NFs distribution maps using land-use reconstruction model developed previously, 2) perform rigorous calibration and validation for process-based land ecosystem model using field measured data, and 3) quantify and elucidate the difference of the two types of forests in carbon sequestration and water consumption by using experimental simulations designed with varied future climate change scenarios and managements. This research aims to provide suggestions for better managing the forests, planning forestation activities, and improving forest ecosystem services.