本课题以政策制定者与公众间利益不一致性所导致的政策可信性问题为核心，以引入资本管制的新开放宏观经济模型为基础，系统研究资本管制放松进程中，中国货币当局如何通过汇率政策与货币政策的国内协调、国际协调，提高政策的可信性与有效性。首先，对利益不一致性及其动态演变进行理论刻画，将利益不一致性、资本管制等因素引入理论模型。接下来，利用福利分析、情境模拟方法研究资本管制放松对政策可信性的影响，提出能够提高政策可信性的汇率政策、货币政策国内协调机制。更进一步，通过设定外部重要货币当局的政策取向，系统研究中国货币当局应如何就汇率政策、货币政策、资本管制等政策工具与外部货币当局进行政策的国际协调。最后，对中国未来政策可信性重建与预期管理机制进行系统研究，并对理论研究的基本结论进行经验验证。本课题将推进基于政策可信性视角的汇率政策与货币政策协调机制的研究，促进新政治经济学与新开放宏观经济学研究方法的交叉融合。

Focusing on the credibility of monetary policy induced by the interest inhomogeneity between the policy maker and the public, this research based on the introduction of capital account regulation to the New Open Economy Macroeconomics model, systematically analyzes the policy coordination mechanism of exchange rate policy and monetary policy so as to enhance policy credibility and effectiveness in the process of capital account deregulation. Firstly, this research introduces the dynamics of interest inhomogeneity and capital account regulation to the New Open Economy Macroeconomics model. Secondly, this research analyzes the influence of capital account deregulation on policy credibility by using the methods of welfare analysis and numerical simulation, and puts forward an internal coordination mechanism of exchange rate policy and monetary policy which can enhance policy credibility. Thirdly, this research systematically analyzes the international policy coordination mechanism of exchange rate policy, monetary policy and capital account control by setting the policy intension of foreign monetary authority. Lastly, this research offers important recommendations on policy credibility reestablishment and inflation expectation management mechanism to Chinese government, and the theoretical results will be tested and developed by empirical research. More importantly, this research will integrate the core ideas and methods of the new-political economy and the New Open Economy Macroeconomics, and advance the research of policy coordination of exchange rate policy and monetary policy based on the perspective of policy credibility greatly.