本项目旨在建立一个针对计数数据的从建模、估计到检验的计量模型体系，并研究及其在社会经济分析中的应用。具体研究内容包括：（1）建立空间整值自回归移动平均模型体系。（2）空间整值自回归移动平均模型的多种参数估计方法。（3）建立适合空间整值自回归移动平均过程的空间相关性、异质性统计量，以及空间整值自回归移动平均模型假设检验方法。（4）开发基于空间整值自回归移动平均模型的实证工具 、预测方法和监测预警指标体系，以及相关分析软件包，并为我国政府决策部门和相关行业的企业解决社会经济管理领域（如：疾病预报、市场营销、环境学、经济学、保险学等领域）中的实际问题提供科学理论依据和技术方法支持。

This aim of this project is to develop methodologies for modelling, estimation and hypothesis testing in the context of spatial count data and to apply these techniques to deepen our understanding of current economic and social problems with a spatial dimension. Our research project involves (1) Developing spatial integer valued autoregressive moving average (SINARMA) models (2) Estimation methods for these model and deriving the properties of the resultant estimators (3) Constructing spatial count data autocorrelation tests and spatial count data heterogeneity statistics tailored to SINARMA processes and (4) Empirical application of SINARMA models to such problems as prediction, systems for early warning and monitoring together with the production of appropriate software packages. This project will aid decision making processes for government agencies and other relevant enterprises and also help the development of SINARMA models in other domains such as disease prevention, marketing, environmental sciences, economics, insurance and so on.