风暴潮和台风浪等海洋要素导致的海岸洪水给中国沿海地区带来了巨大灾害，为了有效抵御其侵扰，有必要对极值海洋要素造成的灾害风险有充分认识。由于中国近海极值海洋要素间的相关关系目前尚不明确，现有海岸洪水风险计算方法对多要素的联合作用考虑不足。本项目以中国近海为研究区域，台风影响下对海岸洪水致灾的海洋水文要素为研究对象，使用数值模拟方法对海洋要素实测资料进行补充，获取长时间序列的海洋要素数据，对极值要素的时空分布特征及其间相关关系开展研究。建立台风影响下天文潮、风暴增水和波浪爬高等致灾要素多元联合概率模型，掌握其联合分布，并将致灾要素的联合作用作为环境荷载引入到洪水风险的计算中，建立多要素共同影响下的海岸洪水风险评估模型，对中国近海典型区域的海岸洪水风险进行探究。预期研究成果可以为海岸及近海工程设计、海岸防灾减灾等活动提供更好的科学依据和技术支撑。

The coastal flooding caused by extreme ocean elements like storm surge and wave bring severe disasters along China coast. In order to withstand the coastal disasters, it is necessary to fully understand the risk of disasters that extreme ocean elements could cause. However, because of the relationship between extreme ocean elements in offshore China remain unclear, the existing methods to calculate the coastal flooding risks generally ignored the co-effect of multi-elements. This project is proposed to analyze the temporal and spatial distribution of extreme ocean elements by obtain the long-term oceanic data through numerical simulation. Establishing a multivariate joint probability model to analyze the joint distribution of extreme ocean elements which lead to coastal disasters under typhoon climate in offshore China. By introducing the joint effects of multi-elements as environmental load to the calculation of the coastal flooding probability, the flooding risks of interested areas along the China coast will be analyzed. It is believed that the outcomes of this project will provide theoretical basis and practical guidance to coastal engineering design and hazard prevention.