The performance of the copulas in estimating the joint probability of extreme waves and surges along east coasts of the mainland China
The performance of the copulas in estimating the joint probability of extreme waves and surges along east coasts of the mainland China
复制标题
联结函数在中国大陆东海岸极端海浪联合概率估计中的表现
DOI：
10.1016/j.oceaneng.2021.109581
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发表时间：
2021-10
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Min Gan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jiangxia Li;Shunqi Pan;Yongping Chen;Min Gan
在设计沿海和近岸建筑物时，波浪高度和风暴潮的联合概率对于确定可能的最高总水位是必不可少的。准确估计联合概率的关键是选取极值和选择分析用的概率函数。本研究的目的是对联合概率分析中采用的不同方法的性能进行全面评估。采用2种不同的概率分布对双变量极端波高和浪涌样本进行了分析，并对Gumbel-Hougaard copula、Clayton copula、Frank copula和Galambos copula 4种copula的性能进行了评价。利用联合概率方法，结合Gumbel-Hougaard公式，估计了中国大陆海岸线100年回归期可能出现的最高总水位。结果表明，在台风路径密集的地区，浪高与浪涌高度相关。可能的最高总水位分布呈现东南沿海高、北部低的趋势。结果还表明，在海况较强的位置，联合概率方法可以提高设计的精度。
In designing coastal and nearshore structures, the joint probability of the wave heights and storm surges is essential in determining the possible highest total water level. The key elements to accurately estimate the joint probability are the appropriate sampling of the extreme values and selection of probability functions for the analysis. This study is to provide a full assessment of the performance of the different methods employed in the joint probability analysis. The bivariate extreme wave height and surge samples are analysed using 2 different probability distributions and the performance of 4 copulas, namely: Gumbel–Hougaard copula, Clayton copula, Frank copula and Galambos copula, is assessed. The possible highest total water levels for 100-year return period along the coastline of the mainland China are estimated by the joint probability method with the Gumbel–Hougaard copula. The results show that the wave heights and surges are highly correlated in the areas of dense typhoon paths. The distributions of the possible highest total water levels show a higher value in the southeast coast and lower value in the north. The results also indicate that at the locations where the sea states are energetic, the joint probability approach can improve the accuracy of design.
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影响因子：
1.3
作者：
D. D. Waal-D.;P. V. Gelder
通讯作者：
D. D. Waal-D.;P. V. Gelder
影响因子：
5
作者：
Yongping Chen;Jiang‐Long Li;S. Pan;Min Gan;Yi Pan;Dongmei Xie;S. Clee
通讯作者：
Yongping Chen;Jiang‐Long Li;S. Pan;Min Gan;Yi Pan;Dongmei Xie;S. Clee
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
S. Corbella;D. Stretch
通讯作者：
S. Corbella;D. Stretch
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Chini, Nicolas;Stansby, Peter;Lowe, Jason
通讯作者：
Lowe, Jason
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
R. Montes-Iturrizaga;E. Heredia‐Zavoni
通讯作者：
R. Montes-Iturrizaga;E. Heredia‐Zavoni