发展航空煤油替代燃料的化学反应动力学机理、揭示航空煤油燃烧的微观化学反应机制，对设计高性能航空发动机至关重要。揭示机理的不确定性传递机制有助于降低机理预测的不确定性、发展稳健可靠的航空煤油替代燃料燃烧反应动力学模型。本项目拟选取正癸烷和甲苯作为航空煤油替代燃料中的代表性组分来研究反应动力学机理发展中的不确定性传递机制，发展和改进全局不确定性和灵敏性方法，全面评估正癸烷和甲苯混合燃料反应动力学机理中的热力学、动力学和输运参数的不确定性；在此基础上探究机理参数到机理预测结果的误差传递机制；分析不确定性来源，设计实验和理论计算以优化机理；针对不同的机理简化方法，计算机理简化过程中的信息损失，评估简化机理的可靠性。本项目发展的方法和研究结果将对构建可靠的适合宽工况范围的航空煤油替代燃料的燃烧动力学模型起到积极推动作用。

The development of detailed and reduced chemical kinetic mechanisms of aviation kerosene surrogate is of vital significance to the design of high-performance aeroengine. Insight into the propagation of mechanism uncertainty is crucial to the reduction of model uncertainty, which can promote the development of reliable kinetic mechanisms. In order to study uncertainty propagation mechanism in the chemical kinetic model, the blends of n-decane and toluene are selected as surrogate of aviation kerosene. In this project, methods of global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis will be exploited, and the uncertainty of chemical kinetic rate parameters, thermodynamic and transport data in the combustion kinetic model of blends of decane and toluene will be systematically estimated. And the mechanism of uncertainty propagation from model inputs to the predictive uncertainty of model output will be revealed. Based on the analyzation of the main sources of uncertainty, theoretical calculation and experiment will be designed accordingly to optimize and constrain the mechanism. Meanwhile, the loss of information in the reduction of reaction mechanism for different reduction methods will be estimated. The methodology and the results of this study will contribute to the development of reliable chemical mechanism of aviation kerosene surrogate with detailed uncertainty information.