区域短寿命气候污染物（SLCPs）环境风险评价及驱动因素研究

短寿命气候污染物（Short-lived Climate Pollutants, SLCPs）包括黑碳、对流层臭氧、甲烷和部分氢氟碳化物等在大气中存留时间比较短且存在温室效应的污染物。SLCPs的减排具有改善空气质量和降低温升效应的协同效益，对我国大气污染治理和应对气候变化均有着重要的意义。目前我国关于SLCPs的研究仍处于起步阶段，SLCPs政策措施制定缺乏相应的科学依据和支撑。为此，本研究以长三角地区为研究区，以黑碳、臭氧为研究对象，构建区域SLCPs环境风险（包括健康风险、生态风险、农作物产量影响等）评估模型，分析区域黑碳、臭氧等SLCPs环境风险的时空变化特征；在此基础上，结合区域自然环境和社会经济相关指标，构建区域SLCPs环境风险的驱动力分析模型，分析评估区域SLCPs环境风险时空变化的主要驱动因子，在此基础上筛选区域SLCPs环境风险调控关键节点，提出环境风险调控政策建议。

Short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) refer to the air pollutants which have greenhouse effects but short atmospheric lifetimes, including black carbon, tropospheric ozone, methane, and some hydrofluorocarbons. Reducing emissions of SLCPs can bring co-benefits of improving air quality and slowing global warming, which have important implications for China to deal with the air pollution control and the climate change issues. The researches about SLCPs in China are still at the early stage, which cannot support the policy making of SLCPs regulations. Taking Yangtze Delta Region as study area, black carbon and tropospheric ozone as study objects, this study will develop environmental risk assessment models for regional SLCPs (including health risk, ecological risk, and crop yields impact). Then the spatial-temporal characteristics of environmental risks of regional black carbon and ozone will be studied. Further, regional driving force analyzing models for SLCPs will be developed with considerations of regional natural and socio-economic conditions. On this basis, the main driving forces of changes of regional SLCPs and the key points for regional SLCPs regulation will be identified. Finally, this study will propose policy recommendations for regional SLCPs environmental risk managements.