天山北坡融雪产流过程模拟及其预报不确定性研究

山区降水-雪冰融水径流是新疆水资源形成的主要来源，而雨雪二元产流模式是新疆山区径流显著而共同的特点。因此，积雪资源的形成、转化与利用研究是新疆水资源研究的重点内容。开展山区雨雪产流过程模拟及其预报不确定性研究，对新疆水资源管理和洪涝灾害预防有重要的意义。在降水与融雪产流为主的中科院新疆天山积雪研究站的试验流域，开展高精度遥感GPM卫星降水数据的提取与流域测站网络降水-融雪观测实验。并通过不同梯度海拔测站网点气象数据修正GPM卫星降水数据，用新生降水和气温的流域空间分布数据，解决山区温度和降水数据的稀缺与不确定问题。通过模型数据融合（MDF）方法优化SWAT模型的参数和状态，使模拟结果和观测值达到最佳匹配，消减驱动数据和模型结构的不确定性，提高模拟与预报的精度。旨在阐明新疆山区雨雪产流形成与转化的关键过程；揭示流域尺度融雪变化规律与径流形成机理；确定山区积雪融水对干旱区水资源形成的贡献率。

Precipitation and snow-ice melt runoff are main water resources in Xinjiang, and the dual runoff generation mode of rain-snow is a remarkable and common feature of runoff in mountainous areas of Xinjiang. Therefore, the formation, transformation and utilization of snow cover resources are the key content of the research on water resources in Xinjiang. It is of great significance for the management of water resources and the prevention of flood disaster to carry out the simulation of rainfall and snow runoff generation process and the uncertainty study in mountainous areas. High-precision remote sensing Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite precipitation data extraction and network precipitation-snowmelt observation experiments are carried out in the watershed of Tianshan Snow Cover Research Station of Chinese Academy of Sciences (TSCRS, CAS), where precipitation and snowmelt are the main source of runoff. And GPM satellite precipitation data are modified by meteorological data of different gradient altitude stations to solve the problem of scarcity and uncertainty of temperature and precipitation data in mountainous areas. Besides, the model data fusion (MDF) method is used to optimize the parameters and state of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, so as to achieve the best matching of simulated and observed values. With the intention of reducing the uncertainty of driving data and model structure and improving the accuracy of simulation and prediction. The purpose of this experiment is clarifying the key process of formation and transformation of rain-snow runoff in mountainous areas of Xinjiang, revealing the rule of snowmelt change at watershed scale and the mechanism of runoff formation, and determining the contribution rate of snowmelt water in mountainous areas to the formation of water resources in arid areas.