基于多元混合动机的流域水资源配置冲突利益共容机制研究

Water resource allocation conflict makes the misallocation of water-related interests, and it is caused by the imbalance of stakeholders’ multiple mixed-motives against the backdrop of increasing water constraints. This project mainly investigates the mechanism and guiding strategy of interest encompassing for watershed water resource allocation conflict. And this is from the perspective of multiple mixed-motives. Also this is carried out according to the logic that is from constructing multiple scenarios to quantifying motives, then to achieving encompassing interest. Firstly, the effect laws of multi-uncertainty on the balanced relationship between water resources supply and demand is identified. Also how the multiple mixed-motives affect water users’ decision-making is analyzed under multiple scenarios. Secondly, the economic nature of water resource allocation conflict is bounding based on the quantitative relationship among multiple mixed-motives. Then the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution is adopted to explore the evolutionary equilibrium and coordination strategy of water resource allocation conflict based on multiple mixed-motives. Thirdly, the mechanism of interest encompassing is deeply studied through a game model for encompassing interest, a mechanism for interest allocation and a ranking model for conflict resolutions. Finally, according to a demonstration application of the proposed mechanism in ZhangHe river basin, the guiding strategy and promotion application of interest encompassing for water resource allocation conflict in watershed are analyzed. This project could compensate the shortage of attention to multiple mixed-motives and interest encompassing in the domain of governance of water resource conflict. Also this project has important theoretical significance to enrich the theory of watershed water resource management, and also realistic significance to guarantee China’s watershed water security.

在水资源约束趋紧背景下，利益主体的多元混合动机失衡导致流域水资源配置冲突，并使得多主体间的用水利益出现错配。本项目从多元混合动机视角探讨流域水资源配置冲突利益共容机制及引导策略，按照“多情景构建-混合动机量化-共容利益实现”的逻辑展开。辨识多重不确定性因素对水资源供需平衡的作用机理及不同情境下多元混合动机对用水主体决策行为的影响。在量化多元混合动机的基础上界定流域水资源配置冲突的内涵，寻求基于多元混合动机的流域水资源配置冲突演化均衡及协调策略。通过流域水资源配置冲突共容利益博弈模型、共容利益分配机制及冲突方案共识排序模型探究水资源配置冲突多主体利益共容机制。根据漳河流域应用示范研究，分析流域水资源配置冲突利益共容的引导策略及推广应用。本项目的研究成果不仅能弥补当前水资源配置冲突治理过程中对多元混合动机以及共容利益关注的不足，丰富流域水资源管理理论，并对保障我国流域水安全具有重要的现实意义。

全球气候变化和人类活动加剧对流域/区域水资源系统已经产生了重大而深远的影响。加之，工业化和城市化的快速发展、人类生产、生活方式转变等更加剧了水资源压力，这些因素相互叠加并交织在一起使环境变化更加复杂。进而，使得社会-生态系统面临多重不确定性，这些不确定性因素导致水资源情势发生深刻变化，如水资源供需矛盾、水旱灾害损失、水环境污染严重等，加剧了水资源系统的脆弱性，使我国水安全面临巨大的威胁。近年来，以水资源冲突为典型代表的涉水事件显著增加，流域/区域水资源管理难度加大。本项目基于我国流域/区域水资源管理实践构建了理论分析模型，深入探讨了水资源配置冲突决策模拟研究、水资源配置方案多主体协调机制、水资源定量综合评估模型、区域水资源可供应水量的影响因素研究、城市供水系统韧性的空间差异及驱动因素研究等一系列具有理论意义和实践价值的话题。研究结果表明，我国水贫困状况不容乐观且区域差异明显，用水效率依然有较大的提升空间，政府在排污权二级市场交易中应发挥协调者角色而非干预角色，考虑信息损失的水资源配置方案综合评价模型更符合现实情况，部门间用水冲突的解决能够促进“以水定城”的实现，水资源可供应量受到社会经济多方面因素的交叉影响，供水系统韧性的提升不仅与基础设施条件有关还需关注社会经济方面的影响。课题研究成果运用了大量的经济社会统计数据、水文水资源统计数据和第一手调研数据，数据来源可靠，研究结果对指导实践具有更好的启示意义，不仅丰富了新时期的水资源治理理论和应对变化环境的水资源配置理论，并在水利工程单位的管理实践中得到应用，凸显了课题研究成果较高的理论创新和应用价值。

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