环境胁迫与制度变迁下干旱区乡村恢复力及适应演化机制

Since the reform and opening up, great changes have taken place in the relationship between human and environment in arid rural areas of Northwest China due to the changes of arid environment, the structure of agricultural production and social institution. In order to evaluate the impact of this change on rural sustainability, the research introduces resilience analysis thinking into rural human-environment system research. According to the logical thinking of "environmental stress and institutional change—rural transformation and adaptation—evolution of human-environment system", this research selects typical arid villages in inland river basin and uses remote sensing and GIS technology, qualitative analysis and quantitative measurement, peasant household survey and other methods, systematically studying on the adaptive evolution of rural human-environment relationship in arid areas. Firstly, starting from the adjustment of the adaptive institution under environmental stress, this research evaluates the spatial and temporal changes of the resilience of arid rural areas and defines the evolution state and trend of rural system. In the second place, guided by the adaptive cycle theory, this research clarifies the driving force, process and mechanism of the adaptive evolution of arid rural areas, which summarizes the characteristics and key variables of the adaptive evolution of rural areas. Finally, in the basis of the scenario setting of environmental risk and future institutional change and its simulation results, this research puts forward adaptive strategies for improving the resilience of arid rural areas. It is expected to provide new ideas and methods for the traditional research of rural human-environment relationship and sustainability in theory and provide the basis for the transformation and development of arid rural areas and the policy formulation of "rural revitalization" in practice.

改革开放以来，干旱环境变化、农业生产结构调整与社会制度变迁等，促使西北干旱乡村人地关系发生了重大变化。为评估这种变化对乡村可持续性的影响，将恢复力分析思维引入乡村人地系统研究，选取内陆河流域典型干旱乡村，按照“环境胁迫与制度变迁—乡村转型适应—人地系统演进”的逻辑思路，运用遥感与GIS技术、质性分析与定量测度、农户调查等多种方法，对干旱区乡村人地关系适应演化开展系统研究。首先，从环境胁迫的适应制度调整出发，评估干旱乡村恢复力时空变化，界定乡村系统演化态势；进而，以适应性循环理论为指导，明确干旱乡村适应演化的驱动力、过程及作用机制,总结乡村适应演化特征与关键变量。最后，基于环境风险和未来制度变革情景设置及其模拟结果，提出干旱乡村恢复力提升的适应策略。预期理论上可为传统乡村人地关系及可持续性领域提供新思维和方法，实践上为干旱乡村转型发展和“乡村振兴”政策制定提供依据。

改革开放以来，干旱环境胁迫、生态治理与制度变迁等对西北干旱乡村人地关系演变与可持续性发展带来了诸多不确定性。本项目通过整合地理遥感、社会统计和实地调研等数据，对干旱乡村恢复力及其适应性演化进行了综合研究；主要研究内容与结果包括：①以民勤绿洲、石羊河流域样带为例，在构建社区恢复力分析框架基础上，评估了干旱乡村恢复力时空演变格局及特征，揭示了社区恢复力内外部影响机制；并拓展分析了干旱乡村系统脆弱性的时空异质性。②修订完善了适应性研究的理论范式，为传统人地关系演化研究提供了综合认知框架。以民勤县为例，通过社会-生态系统要素相互作用关系，界定了干旱乡村适应演化过程及农户生计响应，阐明了农户生计适应行为选择及其影响因素。③利用贝叶斯网络模拟方法，对民勤绿洲乡村适应能力、结果进行了情景模拟与预测，并提出了干旱乡村适应路径优化策略。

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