随着中国步入老龄社会，其人口结构持久性变化对于全球经济增长、资产配置和资本流动都有着决定性的影响。利用经济理论和模型分析这些影响具有重大的理论和现实意义。本课题将理论和实证结合，从以下三个方面研究这个问题。第一、实证分析。利用跨国面板数据估计国家人口结构对于经济增长率、资产价格和中长期国际资本流向的影响。第二、模型构建和估计。构建一个两国开放宏观生命周期一般均衡模型，利用宏微观数据校准参数，定量的分析人口老龄化对于产出、自然利率水平和资本项目的影响并分解传导机制。第三、政策评估。利用模型模拟生育政策改革、退休和养老制度改革、资本项目管制等政策对于经济增长、宏观经济稳定性和社会福利的影响。本课题的研究成果将为相关政策改革提供重要的决策依据。

As the population in China is aging rapidly, the permanent demographic changes have greatly influenced the global economic growth, asset portfolios, and cross-border capital flow. Researches on those impacts using economic theory and models will have both theoretical and empirical contributions. This project will combine the theory and empirical together, and study the topic in three steps. First, the empirical study. We use cross-country panel data to estimate the impact of demographic changes on the output growth rate, asset prices, and middle/long term international capital flow. Second, model setup and estimation. We build up a two-country life-cycle general equilibrium models. We Calibrate the model and estimate the impact of population aging on the real output, natural interest rate, and capital account balance. We further decompose the total effect into different chancels using counter-factual experiments. Third, policy evaluations. Using the calibrate model as a lab, we simulate the effect of birth policy, retirement policy, and social security reform on the economic growth, macroeconomic stability, and social welfare. The findings of such project will help the government to make policy decisions.