太湖流域景观格局变化的水生态服务响应机制及调控研究

水生态服务对景观格局变化的时空响应研究是当前景观生态学、地理学等领域关注的前沿和热点，也是区域土地利用优化调控的重要基础。本项目以太湖流域为研究区，拟按照水生态服务“时空动态评估−响应机制分析−权衡与优化调控”的思路，应用实地调查、InVEST模型、多元统计分析、情景模拟等方法，定量评估太湖流域典型水生态服务（水源涵养、水质净化、土壤保持）的时空动态；探究水生态服务对流域景观格局响应的时空分异特征、非线性关系及阈值效应，阐明其响应机制；在此基础上，构建生态系统服务权衡分析的成本效益比指数，识别土地利用格局优化的关键区域，探索“有限”调控土地利用格局并“显著”提升水生态服务的有效途径。研究有助于深化理解流域景观格局与水生态服务的关系，拓展生态系统服务权衡研究的应用，为保障太湖流域水生态安全提供新的研究视角和管控途径。

Effect of landscape pattern change on water-related ecosystem services is among the hot research issues in the fields of landscape ecology and geography. It is also the basis for land use decision-making and regulation. Taking the Lake Taihu Basin as a case study area, the project aims to study water-related ecosystem services under the “modeling – response analysis – tradeoffs and regulation” framework. The project will employ field investigation, the InVEST model, multivariate statistical analysis, and scenario analysis methods to quantitatively assess the spatio-temporal dynamics of three typical water-related ecosystem services (i.e., water conservation, water purification, and soil erosion control) in the Lake Taihu Basin; and to explore the responding relationships (e.g.,spatial variation, non-linear relationship, threshold effect) and mechanisms of these three water-related ecosystem services to changes in landscape pattern in the basin. The project will also develop the cost-benefit ratio index for tradeoff analysis among ecosystem services, and identify critical sub-basins for cost-effective land use regulations. The ultimate goal of this project is to explore effective ways to regulate land use pattern so that small changes in land use could yield large gains in water-related ecosystem services. The results of this project can provide us with a better understanding of the relationships between watershed landscape pattern and water-related ecosystem services; and provide new insights into land use regulation for maintaining water ecological security in the Lake Taihu Basin.