城市群的快速发展带来了一系列城市生态问题，客观、准确地监测和模拟城市群生态系统健康动态变化是城市生态系统定量化的关键，是解决城市生态问题的有效手段。本项目采用MODIS遥感产品，通过隐马尔可夫模型(HMM)构建一套生态系统健康研究方法与体系，并采用无迹卡尔曼滤波(UKF)方法优化模型获取高精度模拟结果，构建基于滤波优化-隐马尔可夫(HMM-UKF)的生态系统健康模型，旨在解决城市生态模型研究中由于模型误差导致的模拟结果不确定及精度不高的问题。在此基础上，以环杭州湾城市群为例，研究生态系统健康的时空演变规律，并采用生态系统健康分析法，针对不同健康发展模式进行生态系统健康分析评估，为城市群的可持续发展提供决策依据。通过本研究能够丰富城市生态定量研究的理论方法与实践借鉴，深化对城市群生态系统健康演化机理和空间分异的认识，为国家新型城镇化建设及城市群的可持续发展战略提供科学的方法和实践。

The rapid development of urban agglomeration brings a series of urban ecological problems. It is the key issue to quantify the urban ecosystem by monitoring and simulating the dynamic change of ecosystem health objectively and accurately in urban agglomerations, and it is the effective means to solve the urban ecological problems. MODIS remote sensing products are used to build a set of ecosystem health research methods and systems through the Hidden Markov Model(HMM), and to improve the simulation accuracy by unscented Kalman Filter(UKF). The ecosystem health model based on HMM-UKF is built to solve the problem that simulation results are uncertain and the model accuracy is not high due to the model error in common models. Then taking the urban agglomeration along Hangzhou Bay as a case to study the temporal and spatial pattern of ecosystem health, and using the ecosystem health analysis method to characterize the ecosystem health with different healthy development modes, providing the decision for the sustainable development of the urban agglomeration. Through this study, we can enrich the theoretical methods and practice of urban ecological quantitative research, deepen the understanding of evolution mechanism and spatial variation of urban agglomeration ecosystem, and provide scientific methods and practice for the China New-type Urbanization construction and the sustainable development strategy of urban agglomeration.