贸易收入链与反映贸易国民收入的DPN投入占用产出模型研究

目前全球价值链研究已在很多国家蓬勃开展。其中心内容是核算贸易增加值，即计算出口带来的增加值。现有研究表明，中国出口的增加值率很低。鉴于中国出口商品半数以上是外资企业生产的，出口增加值约有30％左右为外国所有，中国出口的本国收入率更低。本项目建议开展贸易收入链研究，不仅要从生产角度研究出口为中国所带来的增加值，而且要从分配角度研究出口为中国所带来的国民总收入，特别是研究出口所带来的居民收入。本项目将提出新颖的DPN模型，包括贸易国民收入DPN模型和区分内外资企业的贸易国民收入DPN模型，研究和计算出口对中国国民总收入，以及对居民收入的贡献。预计此项研究不仅将进一步发展投入占用产出理论和方法，而且将揭示：中国尽管是世界第一货物贸易大国，但"生产在中国，利润在美国"，中国的贸易收入远少于美、德等国。

Recently study on global value chain is going vigorously in many countries. The key issue is to calculate trade value-added, that is, to calculate value-added of exports. It is shown that value-added rate of Chinese exports is very low. Because more than half of China's exported commodities are produced by foreign invested enterprises and about 30% of value-added of exported commodities belongs to the foreign countries, national income rate of Chinese exports is too lower. The project suggests to study on trade income chain. We have to study and calculate not only value-added by exports, but also GNI from exports, particularly household income from exports. In the project we will proposed new DPN model, including trade national income DPN model and trade national income DPN model capturing foreign invested enterprise, study and calculate the contribution of GNI, and household income by exports. It is expected that the project will not only to develop input-occupancy-output theory and methods, but also to reveal that China is the first big country in total value of commodities trade, but China's income value of trade is much less than US and Germany, because of "production in China, profit belongs to US".