国民收入视角下的美中贸易逆差研究-区分收入国别的世界投入占用产出模型及其应用

中美贸易差额是反映中美两国贸易平衡状况的重要指标。目前世界各国官方从贸易总值视角计算双边贸易差额，以贸易总值计算的美中贸易逆差严重夸大了美中贸易不平衡状况。目前从增加值视角研究美中贸易逆差已取得重要进展。本项目提出从国民收入视角研究美中贸易逆差。这是由于中国出口商品的半数左右由外资企业生产，出口增加值中较大一部分也为外国所有。很多出口品“生产在中国，利润在美国”。我们不仅要从生产角度研究出口为中国带来的增加值，而且要从分配角度研究出口为中国带来的国民收入。申请人在已获得部分国际知名学者好评的投入占用产出技术和DPN模型基础上，提出构建新颖的区分国民收入国别的投入占用产出模型(NI-IOO Model)，包括单国模型和世界模型，提出新颖的出口完全国民收入计算方法，并进一步提出《全球价值链》。从增加值视角计算的美中贸易逆差比贸易总值视角减少35％，如从国民收入视角计算，将进一步减少20%左右。

Sino-US trade balance is a very important indicator to reflect the trade balance between China and the United States. In the official statistics the trade balance between two countries is calculated by gross value of trade. To calculate US-China trade deficit from the perspective of gross value of trade will seriously overestimate the trade imbalance between the US and China. Major progress has been made to calculate US-China trade deficit from the perspective of value-added. In the project we will suggest to calculate US-China trade deficit from the perspective of national income. Since in China about half of the export commodities is produced by foreign-funded enterprises, a large portion of export value added is also owned by foreign countries as remunerations of foreign factors of production. Many export commodities are "manufactured in China, profitable in the United States". We should not only study China’s value added of exports from the perspective of production, but also study China’s national income of exports from the perspective of income distribution. On the basis of Input-Occupancy-Output Technique and DPN model, which were praised by some internationally renowned scholars, the applicant will propose to construct a novel input-occupancy-output model with distinguishing national income countries (NI-IOO Model), including the single-country model and the world model, and will propose a new method to calculate total national income of export commodity. We proposed 《Global Income Chain》. US-China trade deficit calculated by value-added will be reduced by about 35% than that calculated by gross value of trade. If we calculate US-China trade deficit from the perspective of national income. It is expected to be further reduced by about 20%.