中国国际人口迁移双向流格局模拟及演化机理研究

China is taking an increasingly prominent role in the global migration system. The number of Chinese born population living abroad has risen over recent decades, dispersed widely over many countries. Similarly, the population of foreigners living in China has grown rapidly recently, forming sizable non-Chinese born communities in many major Chinese cities. Initiatives such as the Belt and Road project are likely to provide closer connections between partnering countries which will almost inevitably lead to further expansions in Chinese international migration..In order to fully understand the causes and consequences of the spatial and temporal distributions of Chinese international migration, researchers and policy makers require timely data. In particular, data on migration flows can quantify changes in population movement patterns over time and allow for effective comparisons of both moves to and from China. However, this data is often unavailable, not well understood or not up to date. Data on Chinese migration abroad is also reliant on other nations collecting data on migrants when they arrive, which does not always happen. .This project aims to study available data and use advanced statistical modelling techniques to fill in the data gaps, quantifying Chinese international migration patterns. The estimation results will then be used to study the drivers of Chinese international migration and identify the similarities and differences in the factors behind migration to and from China to provide a theoretical background on the evolution of China’s international migration and provide policy insights from our findings..In the earlier stages of the project, when quantifying China’s migration flows, we will take a global perspective in order to study past patterns in the migration flows into and out of China. For more recent years we will develop methods to combine official sources of migration data and new “big data” sources from digital traces based on social media activates. In particular, we will focus on Chinese migration along Belt and Road countries, where new migration flow patterns are likely to develop in coming years. .In the later stages of the project we will utilise the results from estimation models to visualise the spatial distribution on Chinese international migration and study the mechanisms driving their flow patterns over time. We will place these results in a theoretical context to provide policy relevant implications for monitoring and understanding future patterns of Chinese international migration.

中国在全球人口迁移系统中发挥的作用越来越重要，中国出生的海外移民数量和来中国的常住外国人口都呈现快速增长趋势，新时代中国“一带一路”倡议将进一步推动中国国际人口迁移双向流的演进。当前，国际人口迁移研究普遍存在数据稀缺性问题，特别是不同时段的人口迁移流数据。本研究旨在采用既有的人口迁移存量数据，基于统计学方法构建国际人口迁移双向流模型，据此构建1960年—2015年中国国际人口迁移的时空数据库，分析过去时期中国国际人口迁入流和人口迁出流的演化格局和地域类型，结合影响因素分析和实地调研探讨背后的演化机理。在此基础上，选取“一带一路”沿线作为重点样带，采用2015年的腾讯、脸书等大数据，构建新兴大数据与传统数据的融合模型，分析双向迁移流的新趋势。最后，提出中国国际人口迁移的流变理论和响应策略，以期推动中国人口地理学研究，为中国国际人口迁移政策制定提供科学依据。

迁移者们进出中国的原因多种多样，如寻求更好的经济机会、教育、家庭团聚或庇护。中国的迁移历史源远流长，且近几十年来，随着中国经济的增长和全球化，中国迁移的发展速度有所加快。中国移民遍布世界各地，在北美、东南亚和澳大利亚人口最多。中国政府还实施了鼓励外迁以及吸引技术人才回国的政策。..监测中国海外移民的数据往往是有限的，因为它依赖于其他国家的数据收集。然而，国际迁移数据往往无法获得。呼吁改善迁移数据的质量和可得性一直是《可持续发展目标》和《全球移民协议》等高级别协议的一贯特点。数据问题阻碍了对世界各地国际移民流动的规模和模式进行详细研究。..在该项目的第一阶段，我们使用统计方法在全球范围内按性别对国际移民流动进行估计。我们基于一系列方法得出了多个估计值，并通过一系列验证测试将其准确性与现有报告的移民统计数据进行了比较，这些统计数据主要来自于拥有统计系统监测国际流动的高收入国家。我们开发了一个创新网站，向广大受众可视化所估计的全球移民流动结果。..在项目的第二阶段，我们能够使用国际移民流动的估计结果来研究移民网络的结构和演变，以及它们如何与现有的移民理论相关联。与动态稳定性的概念一致，我们表明，国际移民网络的数量、规模和其所包含的国家，随着时间的推移一直非常稳定；包括中国。..在项目的第三阶段，我们研究了基于社交媒体的新数据源的使用，以更好地理解移民的测量和海外中国高技能人口的规模。由于它们的高时间粒度，在定义迁移事件时，通过更改定义的参数，可以从地理引用的数字社交媒体数据生成许多迁移估计。我们已经制定了一个紧急的研究议程，以研究移民估计和时间之间的具体功能关系，以及这种关系如何随着地理和人口特征而变化。

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