女性劳动参与、生育行为选择与人口红利：效应测度与政策含义

结题报告

项目介绍

AI项目解读

基本信息

批准号：
71473128
项目类别：
面上项目
资助金额：
60.0万
负责人：
顾和军
依托单位：
南京信息工程大学
学科分类：
G0313.人口劳动与健康经济
结题年份：
2018
批准年份：
2014
项目状态：
已结题
起止时间：
2015-01-01 至2018-12-31

项目参与者：
Xiao-yuan Dong；孙芬；贾愚；吕林杰；李先影；周一汛；
关键词：
人口红利女性生育行为劳动参与

项目摘要

In the new stage of the demographic transition and employment market development,it's important to increase the labor force participation rate of working age population including women, which can alleviate the decreasing of current demographic dividend.Besides,it's important to increase the fertility, which can alleviate the decreasing of future demographic dividend.However,women have certain trade-offs between work and family,the increase of labor force participation may decrease the fertility, similarly, the increase of birth rate may decrease the labor force participation. In order to maximize the demographic advantage to support rapid economic growth,the project will constuct the logic framework between female labor force participation,fertility behavior choice and demographic dividend.On the basis,the project do the empirical analysis, to identify the mutual influence between laobor force participation and fertility,and evaluate its demographic dividend.According to the results the project will reveal the trade-off between current(labor force participation) and future(fertility) demographic dividend. The implementation of this project not only can give referenc for future fertility and empolyment policy,but also deepen the understanding of the mechanism of population structure change, promote the development of related disciplines.

在人口转变和劳动就业市场发育的新阶段，增加包括女性在内的适龄人口的劳动参与是缓解当前人口红利降低的重要手段；而增加生育率则是缓解未来人口红利下降的重要手段。然而，女性在工作与生育之间存在一定权衡取舍：劳动参与率的提高可能意味着生育率的下降；同样，生育率的提高可能意味着劳动参与率的下降。因此，为了最大程度地利用人口优势支撑经济快速增长，本课题试图构建反映女性劳动参与、生育行为选择与人口红利之间关系的逻辑框架，在此基础上构建实证模型，识别女性劳动参与和生育之间的相互影响，并评估其人口红利效应。根据研究结果揭示当期（劳动参与）和未来（生育）人口红利之间的权衡取舍，探索能有效缓解两者之间权衡取舍的政策框架体系。本项目的实施不仅可以为今后生育政策和就业政策的实施重点和方向及配套政策的制定提供依据，而且有助于加深对发展中国家人口结构转变机制的理解，推动相关学科的发展。