非常规突发事件情景的构建与动态推演方法研究

非常规突发事件决策应对的本质是情景应对，情景是决策者赖以决策的基础和依据。针对现有的非常规突发事件应急管理尚缺乏有效的情景构建及情景动态推演方法，难以为决策者实时的制定动态应对决策方案提供有效支撑的问题，本项目研究非常规突发事件情景的构建与动态推演方法，具体包括：（1）非常规突发事件应急管理系统的知识元及其网络模型；（2）基于知识元的非常规突发事件情景表示与综合构建方法；（3）基于知识元网络的情景动态推演方法；（4）计算实验与应用验证。通过上述内容的研究，可实现非常规突发事件情景的综合构建及动态推演，从而为决策者有针对性的制定动态的情景应对方案提供充分的支持。

The response to unconventional emergency is essentially scenario-response. Scenario is the basis for decision-makers to make decisions. To solve the problem of lacking effective approach to scenario construction and dynamic scenario deduction in emergency management field, which makes it difficult to provide support for decision-makers in making real-time decision plans for dynamic emergency response, the aim of this project is to develop the approach to scenario construction and dynamic scenario deduction of unconventional emergency. The study focuses on the following topics: (1) Knowledge unit and its network model for unconventional emergency management system. (2) The approach to scenario representation and comprehensive scenario construction of unconventional emergency based on knowledge unit. (3) The apprach to dynamic scenario deduction based on knowledge unit network. (4) Verification through computational experiment and application. Through the above study, the comprehensive scenario construction and dynamic scenario deduction for unconventional emergency could be realized, which makes it possible to provide adequate support for decision-makers to make dynamic scenario-response plans.