冲突消解视角下的非常规突发事件“情景-应对”方案临机生成与动态调整方法研究

针对特定的情景适时生成有效的应对方案，并依情景演变灵活、动态地调整方案是提升非常规突发事件“情景-应对”效能的关键。本项目拟从冲突消解视角开展非常规突发事件“情景-应对”方案的临机生成与动态调整方法研究。具体包括：研究应对活动基本单元的表示及其与情景信息的集成组织模式，构建活化的方案表示模型，为灵活的方案生成与调整奠定基础；探究“情景-应对”方案临机生成与动态调整的内在动因与深层机理，给出“情景-应对”过程中的冲突建模与分析方法，为从冲突消解视角实现方案的临机生成与动态调整提供依据；研究基于冲突识别与消解的“情景-应对”方案临机生成与动态调整方法，将方案生成与调整聚焦于冲突要素，在降低方案生成与调整的时间及资源开销的同时，强化“情景-应对”过程的临机应变。通过以上研究，可进一步推进“情景-应对”范式的深化，为决策者有针对性地制定动态的“情景-应对”方案提供支持。

Generating effective response plans in time and adjusting them dynamically for specific scenarios and their evolution are the keys to improve the efficiency of the scenario-responses to unconventional emergencies. The purpose of this project is to carry out the study on the method of improvisational generation and dynamic adjustment of scenario-response plans for unconventional emergencies from the perspective of conflict resolution. The study of this project focuses on the following issues. Firstly, the formal representation of basic constituent units of response activities and the integrated organizational pattern of the foregoing representation model with scenario information are studied. On the basis of these, an activated response plan model is constructed, which lays a foundation for the flexible generation and adjustment of response plans. Secondly, the internal motivation and mechanism of the improvisational generation and dynamic adjustment of scenario-response plans are explored, and then a conflict modeling and analysis method for scenario-response processes is put forward, which provides a basis for realizing the improvisational generation and dynamic adjustment of scenario-response plans from the perspective of conflict resolution. Finally, a method of the improvisational generation and dynamic adjustment of scenario-response plans based on conflict identification and resolution is proposed. This method can reduce the time and resource cost of the generation and adjustment of response plans, as well as strengthen the improvisation of scenario-response processes by focusing the generation and adjustment of response plans on conflict elements. This study can further promote the deepening of the scenario-response paradigm, and provide supports for decision-makers to develop targeted and dynamic scenario-response plans.