近年来，中国人口增长进入关键转折期，人口收缩现象在区域尺度上快速蔓延，深刻认识这一现象对区域发展产生的重要影响，对于科学谋划人口和区域可持续发展具有重要意义。本项目旨在揭示人口收缩在经济增长、社会活力和生态环境等方面产生的多维区域效应及其空间分异特征。首先，以地理学视角为切入点，构建人口收缩区域效应空间分异的理论分析框架；然后，综合运用空间计量模型、GIS空间分析、综合评价等方法，建立多维效应测度模型和综合集成方案；在县市尺度展开实证分析，系统总结人口收缩区域效应的空间分异特征；在此基础上，进一步通过不同发展背景下的典型案例探讨其空间分异机理；最后，提出区域效应分异特征下人口收缩区分类调控的思路与策略。本项目将为人口收缩区人口调控策略的制定以及区域协调发展战略的综合决策提供支撑；同时，在理论上有助于拓展中国发展背景下人口收缩区域效应研究的理论方法，完善人文地理学研究的理论体系。

In recent years, the population growth in China has reached a critical turning point, and the phenomenon of population decline has begun to spread rapidly on a regional scale. Exploring the possible impacts of this phenomenon on regional development is of great significance for the planning of population and sustainable regional development. This project aims to reveal the multi-dimensional effects of population decline on economic growth, social vitality, and ecological environment， and the possible spatial differences in varied local contexts. To achieve this, we will first build the theoretical framework from the perspective of the geographical differentiation and proposes the corresponding theoretical hypothesis. Then, combining the methods of spatial econometric models, GIS spatial analysis and comprehensive evaluation, quantitative measurement models and a comprehensive evaluation framework will be constructed. The empirical studies will be carried out at the county level to reveal the spatial differentiation of regional effects of population shrinkage. Followed this, the underlying causes of that spatial differentiation will be explored by investigating typical cases. Finally, the coping strategies for different local contexts will be proposed. This project can provide references and supports for proposing targeted coping strategies of population shrinkage, and contribute to the development of the relevant theories on the regional effects of population shrinkage in China.