中国经历着快速的城市化进程，流感主要通过人之间的近距离接触进行传播，因此理论上城市化可能影响季节性流感的传播。申请人在前期研究中，通过对7年的流感监测数据和城市化率数据的初步时空分析发现，不同省（含直辖市）的流感流行强度的空间异质性在不同年份有一致性，并且和城市化率之间呈U型关系：7年中流感流行强度均在城市化率为50%-60%的省最低。据此，考虑不同省的气候特征，本项目拟通过对2010-19年的流感监测数据和城市化数据的时空分析，采用聚类分析和回归模型定量研究城市化率对流感流行强度的影响。进一步，本项目拟在大数据基础上，定量分析城市化对人口结构和人之间接触频率的影响，并构建agent-based模型，研究城市化影响季节性流感传播的潜在机理。短期内中国的城市化仍将继续，研究结果不仅对深入理解城市化影响流感传播的机理具有重要的理论价值，而且对其他呼吸道传染病，如COVID-19，也有借鉴意义。

China has been experiencing a rapid urbanization process; influenza transmission occurs at close range, so theoretically, urbanization could influence the transmission of seasonal influenza epidemics. According to the preliminary spatiotemporal analysis of the province-level influenza surveillance data collected in continental China from 1 April 2010 to 31 March 2017. We observed persistent differences in epidemic intensities between provinces persist across the 7-year study period, and the influenza epidemic intensity exhibited a U-shaped relationship with the rate of urbanization, with a turning point at 50–60% urbanization across years. Given that climate also influences seasonal influenza transmission, this project will quantify the relationship between province-level influenza intensity and urbanization rate from 2010 to 2019 based on cluster and regression analysis. What’s more, this project will quantify the impact of urbanization on population structure and contact between individuals using big data from disparate datasets collected, and build an agent-based model to explore the mechanism of urbanization influencing the seasonal influenza transmission. Given that the urbanization process in China will continue in the near future, this project will not only provide full and deep understanding of the mechanism of urbanization affecting influenza transmission, but also important lessons for other respiratory infections, such as corona virus disease 2019.