钢筋混凝土锈胀开裂是混凝土结构耐久性失效的一个最主要的因素，常导致重大灾害的发生，锈胀开裂预测是解决该问题的有效手段。然而现有的模型预测结果精度差的缺陷，成为制约该方法应用于实际工程的主要瓶颈。本项目以建立高效精确的钢筋混凝土锈胀开裂预测模型为目标，对分布式光纤传感技术(BOTDA)和动态更新方法应用于锈胀预测模型进行了深入的科学研究。具体研究内容包括：基于BOTDA的分布式锈胀监测传感模型研究；钢筋混凝土锈胀开裂全过程发展特性和应变光纤监测数据对应关系研究；基于监测应变数据的锈胀力、锈蚀产物膨胀率、钢筋锈蚀速率的反演算法；监测数据更新下的钢筋混凝土锈胀动态预测新模型。本项目提出的基于参数反演和动态更新的钢筋混凝土锈胀全过程动态预测模型，可有效解决预测精度问题，解决实际应用难题，为混凝土结构的耐久性预测和结构维护决策管理提供更有效的技术手段。

Reinforced concrete cover cracking is a most important factor for durability of concrete structures, which often leads to major disasters. The prediction of corrosion cracking is an effective way to solve the problem. However, the low accuracy of the existing prediction model has become a major bottleneck to restrict the methods applied to engineering practice. The goal of this project is to establish a highly efficient and accurate reinforced concrete cover cracking prediction model. The distributed optical fiber sensing technology (BOTDA) and dynamic update method applied to corrosion expansion prediction model are in-depth researched. The specific research topics include: monitoring sensor model based on distributed BOTDA technology; the relationship between the properties of the reinforced concrete cover cracking and the optical fiber sensor monitoring strain; the inversion algorithm of expansion force, corrosion products expansion, steel corrosion rate based on the monitoring strain data; the new dynamic prediction model of reinforced concrete corrosion under the monitoring data update. Dynamic reinforced concrete corrosion cracking prediction model is proposed in this project based on the parameter inversion and dynamic updates. It can effectively solve the problem of prediction accuracy. It can be used in practical application problems. And it will provide an effective technical method to the decision management for the durability of concrete structure prediction and structural maintenance.