新三支柱“橄榄型” 可持续发展养老制度优化与设计

The project put forward the new three pillars pension model for the sustainable development and optimization of pension system, contraposed the original pyramid pension model that is “big social pooling and small individual account”.The project put forward the “four theory for pension system’s optimization” and “three series of mathematical models for quantitative analysis”, based on the reality of “six contradictions” and “five pension subjects”,such as “national wealth should be distributed evenly by pension population structure”and “optimal pension level”. The paper extracts the new three pillars pension model,including “small social pooling”, “big individual account”, “eight level”, "six optimization", "five sustainable". The project studies innovatively: the theroies including "sustainable population structure cooperate with sustainable pension system" and "pension population structure long-term equilibrium distribution"; income distribution according to three phase of the life cycle of inter-generational overlapping crack pension obligation brought by the population aging; the new mathematical model of pension contribution rate and pension substitution rate based on national wealth’s distribution by population structure;the principle and model of pension subsidies based on pension substitution rate remaining; compensation payment, risk control strategy and system design under different contribution rate and population structure; economic security strategy for old people’welfare and system design in the transition of pension system; the strategy and system design for family endowment coordinating with community endowment .

以养老保险制度可持续发展优化为目标，在“统账结合”模式基础上，针对大统筹小账户的金字塔模式，提出整合新三支柱“橄榄型”养老制度优化理论和设计方案。项目研究从现实的“六大背反”的“五大主体”出发，提出“国民财富养老人口结构均衡分配”和“养老保险适度水平”等“四个养老制度优化基本原理”和定量分析的“三个系列数理模型”方法，提炼出：整合“新三支柱”、“小统筹”、“大账户”、“八大层次”、“六个优化”、“五个可持续”等橄榄型养老保障模式。项目研究创新：“人口可持续协同养老可持续”和“国民财富养老人口结构长期均衡分配”理论观点；三期生命周期代际交叠收入分配破解人口老龄化带来的养老责任；养老保险缴费率和给付替代率适度水平新数理模型；财政补贴养老替代率剩余原理及模型；不同缴费率和人口状况下的补偿给付和风险控制策略；制度转轨中老人福利经济保障策略和制度设计；家庭养老和社会养老的协调互补策略和制度设计。

党的十九大和二十大报告强调覆盖全民、统筹城乡、公平统一、安全规范、可持续的多层次社会保障体系。新三支柱“橄榄型”可持续养老制度优化与设计以国民财富收入再分配适度水平为核心依据，构建新三支柱、八层次养老保障体系框架，是对如何确定科学合理的多层次社会保障体系的理论回应和前瞻性研究。.项目创新提出新三支柱“橄榄型”养老保险体系优化理论，以养老保障收入再分配的三个类型为划分标准，构建新三支柱“橄榄型”八层次养老保险体系框架和要素结构设计，确定养老保障体系总体优化理念、目标和路径，测算分层次养老保障适度优化标准，基于风险型管理视角研究养老保障横向均衡可持续性优化和纵向协调可持续性优化，进一步基于不确定性因素对养老保障适度水平敏感性和稳健性进行检验。.项目重要成果及关键数据包括：(1)创新构建新三支柱、八层次养老保障体系框架，实现现有“金字塔型”养老保险体系架构向“橄榄型”养老保障体系架构优化。(2)确定新第一支柱养老保障适度优化标准及优化机制，人口老龄化高峰时点基础养老金适度替代率为26.04%，机器学习模拟识别发现，提高政策认知和信任程度是适度优化的有效机制；(3)测算新第二支柱养老保障适度水平，人口老龄化高峰时点个人账户适度替代率为15.74%，企业年金适度替代率为10.21%，个人储蓄养老适度替代率为9.25%；(4)构建新第三支柱养老保障适度优化目标，人口老龄化高峰时点财政养老金适度替代率为15.10%，家庭养老保障给付适度替代率为9.25%，社保基金养老适度替代率为4.24%，社会捐助养老给付适度替代率为0.93%。.新三支柱“橄榄型”养老保障体系优化设计可以为多层次养老保障缴费与给付政策提供适度标准，促进人口老龄化、养老制度可持续与经济发展相契合。新三支柱“橄榄型”养老保障体系优化设计是实现人口规模巨大的现代化过程中养老治理重要措施。

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