Bilateral effect of aging population on consumption structure: Evidence from China.
Bilateral effect of aging population on consumption structure: Evidence from China.
复制标题
人口老龄化对消费结构的双边影响：来自中国的证据
DOI：
10.3389/fpubh.2022.941485
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Meng, Wanrong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wang, Yue;Zhao, Wan;Meng, Wanrong
关键词：
我国人口老龄化程度的加深不可避免地将对国民消费和经济转型产生深远影响。本文基于2000-2018年省际面板数据，测算了五种生存型和享受型消费在可支配收入中的占比，重构了消费结构升级的指标，运用双边随机前沿模型，对人口老龄化进行分解，从消费结构产生的正负效应中实现净效应。研究结果表明：（1）人口老龄化对消费结构升级具有正负双向效应，其中正效应使消费结构升级14.04%，负效应使消费结构降级6.18%。综合净效应提升消费结构7. 86个百分点。(2)从时间效应来看，在人口老龄化的正负效应作用下，消费结构平均每年升级7.861%。(3)从区域效应来看，人口老龄化的促进作用在东部地区最大，西部次之。中间是最低的。结合各省的测算结果，东北和西南地区人口老龄化对经济增长的促进作用较低。基于上述研究结果，提出了积极发展银经济、因势利导促进消费结构改善、开发完善老龄消费市场、挖掘老年人消费潜力、加快城镇化发展进程、依托互联网拉动消费增长等对策建议。
The deepening of aging population inevitably in China will exert a far-reaching influence on national consumption and economic transformation. Based on interprovincial panel data in 2000–2018, this paper measured the ratio of five survival and enjoyment consumptions in disposable incomes, reconstructed the indicators for upgrading the consumption structure, used the bilateral stochastic cutting-edge model, and decomposed the aging population to realize the net effect from the positive and negative effects generated by the consumption structure. The findings indicated that (1) aging population played a positive and negative bilateral effect on upgrading the consumption structure, in which the positive effect upgraded 14.04% of the consumption structure while the negative effect degraded 6.18% of the consumption structure. The comprehensive net effect upgraded 7.86% of the consumption structure. (2) From the perspective of the time effect, under the positive and negative effects of aging population, the consumption structure was upgraded 7.861% on average every year. (3) Regarding the regional effect, the promotion role of aging population was the highest in the eastern region, followed by the west. The middle was the lowest. By combining with estimation results of each province, the promotion role brought by aging population in the northeast and southwest was lower. Based on the above-mentioned research results, this paper proposed some advice for positively developing silver hair economy, promoting the improvement on the consumption structure according to circumstances, developing the perfect aging consumption market, exploring the consumption potential of the elderly, accelerating the urbanization development progress, and stimulating consumption growth relying on the Internet.
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