伊洛瓦底江流域中国境内部分水资源-能源-粮食关联性研究

China’s Irrawaddy River basin is evolving into one of the world’s highest density hydro-power-producing regions. Fast-paced hydropower development already pose the threat on water security, energy security, food security in the region, however the related study is rarely happening. Taking the Irrawaddy River basin as a case, this study will explore the interconnected food-energy-water system from a political ecology perspective. A detailed understanding of the energy and water allocation and consumption will be developed by applying Sankey Diagram, and the key linkages and competition between water demand from the food and energy sectors will be identified. A resource access model will be developed of the water–energy–food nexus on the watershed scale, to study its spatial distribution characteristics and sensitive zone. This will incorporate a downscale analysis the water–energy–food nexus in select villages, and use econometric analysis of household questionnaire data and qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews. This analysis will explore the water–energy–food nexus in the village scale and allow extrapolation across the watershed by selecting villages that represent the range within the basin. The mechanism of different actors govern the nexus of water–energy–food will be revealed. Results of this study will provide critical knowledge and models that will form the basis of optimization of resource allocation to ensure coordinately cross-sector management among water, energy, food management units.

伊洛瓦底江流域中国境内已经成为世界水电密度最高的地区，迅速发展的水电，对该地区水安全、能源安全、粮食安全产生了威胁，然而相关研究极少。本研究以伊洛瓦底江流域中国境内部分为例，采用政治生态学的视角，利用桑基图法识别能源和水资源在分配和利用之间的关键联系，并结合粮食生产在流域尺度的耗能需水，揭示流域水资源-能源-粮食的关联机制；同时建立水资源-能源-粮食空间模型，辨识资源可及性敏感区，在敏感区使用农户问卷调查、深度访谈、结合计量分析和质性分析，揭示水电开发驱动的水资源时空分布格局与粮食安全的关联机制。分析水电开发驱动下，流域区不同行动主体利用当前政策与制度对水资源-能源-粮食系统产生的关键影响；在此基础上提出水资源、能源、农业跨部门协调管理的优化模式或方案。

伊洛瓦底江流域中国境内已经成为世界水电密度最高的地区，迅速发展的水电，对该地区水安全、能源安全、粮食安全产生了威胁，然而相关研究极少。本研究以伊洛瓦底江流域中国境内部分为例，采用政治生态学的视角，通过空间可视化、深度访谈、结合计量分析和质性分析，识别了水资源、能源、粮食安全三个子系统在分配和利用之间的关键联系，并结合不同时期主要行为体的行为变化，揭示水电开发驱动的水资源-能源-粮食系统的变化规律。结果表明：1）能源消纳产业变化特征、输电网的空间分布、劳动力市场变化特征、农民合作组织能力变化特征是可以作为衡量系统变化的指示性性因素；2）针对系统变化不同阶段，多级政府支撑和约束型政策的联合实施，有效的维持了系统的稳定发展。项目研究成果可以支撑水资源、能源、农业跨部门协调管理的优化模式或方案的制定。

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