基于陆海统筹的沿海经济带区域弹性识别与演化机理

沿海经济带是陆海统筹战略实施的重要载体，其发展是落实海洋强国建设的重要任务。采用弹性的研究思路，分析基于陆海统筹的沿海经济带区域弹性是值得探索的理论与现实问题，亟需科学理论和技术支撑。本项目通过对国内外弹性进展的系统分析，采用GIS技术、探索性空间分析技术和模型分析方法揭示基于陆海统筹的沿海经济带区域弹性的影响因素、关键过程与演化机理；科学辨识区域弹性的判断标准、诊断指标体系及综合测度方法，揭示其诊断学特征、空间格局特征，并进行类型分异；以环渤海地区为典型案例区域，研究沿海经济带这一特殊系统人文与自然“陆—海”要素相互作用下区域弹性的动力机制及耦合作用；构建区域弹性动态模拟模型，寻找区域弹性的安全阈值；提出基于陆海统筹的沿海经济带区域弹性优化模式及策略。试图为海洋经济理论和经验研究提供新的技术方法，实践上为我国大规模开展海洋经济开发活动提供科学依据。

The coastal economic belt is an important carrier for reshaping the ocean consciousness and implementing the strategy of sea-land coordination, and its development is an important task in implementing the national strategy of strengthening the country. It is worth exploring to study the regional resilience of coastal economic belt based on sea-land coordination in both theoretical and practical ways. Thus there is little knowledge about regional resilience. Against this background, we try to fill this gap. This project is organized as follows. First, it reveals the influencing factors, process, and formation mechanism of regional resilience of coastal economic belt in China, based on GIS technology, exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and modeling. Second, after identifying regional resilience criteria, diagnosis index system and comprehensive measure method, it develops the comprehensive diagnostic and dynamic early warning system for regional resilience of coastal economic belt, using the system dynamics of regional resilience. Third, Taking Bohai-rim region as the typical cities, the study analyzes the dynamic mechanism and coupled function during the forming of regional resilience of coastal economic belt based on sea-land coordination. At last, countermeasures of each regulating mechanism are presented for increasing the regional resilience of coastal economic belt to selected disturbances. The study is aimed at providing new evidences and methods for the theoretical and empirical research on the understanding of regional resilience and marine economics geography thus provides a scientific basis for enhancing the ability of sustainable development of coastal economic belt.