城市住宅用地转型过程及其增值效应互馈机制研究——以武汉市为例

To explore the process of urban land use change from the perspective of transition is an emerging research area at home and abroad. Rural land expropriation and the market secondary development bring unceasing transformation of residential land during the rapid urbanization. The existing researches mainly discussed the urban construction land expansion from the dominant level, few of them have explored the unitary land use (residential land) transformation from the comprehensive dominant and recessive morphology. To understand and grasp the inner transformation process of residential land and the external value-added effect feedback mechanism is of great significance to promote the system innovation of urban housing multi-agent supply. It is a difficult problem in the process of rapid urbanization that how to bring the rural population into the city in an orderly way and make the city expand steadily and reasonably. Clarifying the internal law of residential land change and external value-added mechanism, the key to deeply recognize and solve the housing problems, is an urgent requirement for the nation and government to revise the current land use planning and regulate land market effectively. Taking Wuhan as a typical research area, by integrating the techniques and methods of RS, GIS, spatial statistics and model evaluation, this paper, based on defining the concept of the urban residential land use transition, aims to dissect the transformation pattern of residential land and the spatiotemporal differentiation of land prices, theoretically value the urban residential land transformation process and the function channel and effect of land prices appreciation, empirically investigate the response pattern of study research area, and from the perspective of the “relationship”, conduct the interaction model and comprehensively explain the mutual feeding mechanism between the residential land transition and land prices appreciation based on the conduction factors. This research will enhance the theoretical knowledge on land use transformation and the feedback process of land price appreciation from a new point of view, as well as providing references to promote the scientific development of urban planning and unify urban and rural land market construction.

从转型的视角探索土地利用变化过程是国内外新兴研究领域。快速城镇化进程中农地征用和市地二次开发带来了住宅用地形态不断转变，已有研究主要从显性层面探讨城市建设用地扩张，鲜有综合显性和隐性维度探索单一类型用地（住宅用地）转型，而理解和把握住宅用地内在转型过程与外在增值效应间互馈机制对推进城市住宅多主体供给制度创新具有重要意义。本项目拟以武汉市为例，在科学界定城市住宅用地转型概念基础上，通过集成RS、GIS、空间统计与建模等技术与方法，剖析住宅用地转型格局与地价增值时空分异特征，理论解构城市住宅用地转型过程与地价增值的作用途径、效应，实证探讨研究区的格局响应，并从“关系”入手，建立基于传导因素的住宅用地转型与地价增值作用关系模型，综合揭示二者互馈机制。研究将从新的视角提升对土地利用转型发展和地价增值互馈过程的理论认识，为推动城市规划科学化发展、统一城乡土地市场建设提供参考。

城市住宅用地转型过程及其增值效应互馈机制，是国内外新兴研究领域，相关理论研究与决策实践亟待解决。项目以武汉市为典型研究区，系统探索了城市住宅用地利用转型理论框架、城市住宅用地利用转型过程及格局动态、城市住宅地价增值空间分异特征、城市住宅用地利用转型与地价增值互馈机制等内容，研究表明：（1）城市住宅用地利用转型被界定为，在区域社会经济发展和城镇住房制度改革驱动下，一段时期内城市住宅用地由一种利用形态（含显性形态与隐性形态）转变为另一种利用形态的过程。（2）外部制度政策、社会经济、自然禀赋与内部住房需求分化、地价变化共同引致了城市住宅用地利用转型。（3）数量、空间结构、功能、居住环境、产权、投入和产出等七个方面的转型形态表征指标体系及其诊断方法能较好地演绎城市住宅用地利用转型显性、隐性形态变化过程。（4）基于大数据和机器学习算法的住宅地价精细分布模拟能较好识别其增值趋势。（5）互馈机制分析发现，基于显性形态视角的住宅用地扩张与地价变化通过城市规划和土地市场两个载体进行作用，正向效应和负向效应并存，空间格局呈现耦合演进模式，作用过程存在时滞性，微观层面表现出受城市(次)中心、主干道、湖泊景观等典型区位因素重组的影响日益凸显；基于隐性形态视角的学区教育等典型因素对住房价格具有显著影响。（6）转型调控可从技术、经济与政策等调控路径入手，结合社会-经济正驱动和社会-生态负反馈分析，通过土地与住房制度创新与改革，实现特定时期转型调控目标。研究积极探索城市住宅用地转型过程及其增值效应互馈机制这一极具挑战性的新命题，在城市住宅用地利用转型理论、住宅用地利用转型社会经济效应及其互馈机制等方面形成了新的理论认知和模型方法，可以深化土地利用转型理论研究，激发其在城市住房管理等方面的积极作用。

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