中国水资源整体宏观短缺，洪旱灾害并存，极端事件频发，形势严峻。在变化环境背景下，将水资源常态管理和应急管理有机结合起来，实施基于自然水循环全过程调控的联合管理，将是我国水资源管理未来重要发展方向。本项目将在机理研究和方法探索的层面，研究水资源常态与应急管理的关联机制及协同管理方法。包括：分析水资源常态与应急管理的关联机制，利用三维矩阵、随机数学等方法，建立关联因素矩阵，对其关联机制进行机理解析；采用模糊数学分析、人工神经网络等方法，构建系统分析模型，对水资源常态和应急管理的搭接阈的阈值区间进行识别，进一步解析动态关联机制；选择典型流域或地区开展实例论证分析，对所提出的机理和模型进行修正和完善，提出水资源常态和应急协同管理模式；针对我国海绵城市建设、最严格水资源管理等实践需求，提出我国水资源常态和应急联合管理相关措施建议。本研究将为我国水资源安全保障和水资源可持续管理提供理论支持和技术支撑。

China is now suffering from harsh water shortage. Flood and drought disasters coexist and lead to a severe situation. Under the changing environment, it would be an important developing direction of water resources management to combine routine management and emergency management, and implement the joint management based on the whole process of natural water circulation. This study will explore the coordination mechanisms and the overlapping domains identification of the water resources routine management and the emergency management in the mechanism and method level. The coordination mechanisms of the assessment of the water resources routine management and the emergency management is analyzed through the mathematical description and physical expression of the associated mechanisms based on the matrix method or stochastic mathematics. Besides, the matrix of associated factors was established, and the system analysis model was constructed. Moreover, the overlapping domains identification of the water resources routine management and the emergency management was analyzed, and the threshold range was identified. All these analyses were done by applying fuzzy mathematical analysis, artificial neural networks and other methods. The study carried out demonstrative analysis in typical basins or regions to correct and improve the proposed mechanisms, method and models. Eventually, the relevant measures recommendations of the unified management of water resources routine and the emergency management was proposed. This project will promote the study of water resources security and sustainable management of water resources, and provide theoretical support and technical support.